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Pharmacyclics, Inc. Message Board

  • rolsondonald rolsondonald Sep 28, 2012 1:50 PM Flag

    PCYC Big Risk, Little Reward Biotech Stock - The Motley Fool

    Pharmacyclics (Nasdaq: PCYC )
    I'll bite the bullet and admit that I've been so dead wrong on Pharmacyclics that it's not even funny! But a mixture of stubbornness and common sense can't let me give it a free pass at a valuation of $4.3 billion.

    Pharmacyclics' lead drug candidate, Ibrutinib, a BTK-inhibitor, is currently being tested on four types of cancers and has shown statistical efficacy and tolerability in treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). It's also partnered with Johnson & Johnson subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in a $1 billion deal that gave Pharmacyclics an immediate upfront payment of $150 million.

    However, Wall Street's consensus is that even with CLL and MCL approval, the company is still three years away from a drug launch. As my Foolish colleague David Williamson noted, one Wall Street analyst predicted peak sales of $2.7 billion for Ibrutinib... in 2024! Not even into phase 3 trials yet and predicting $2.7 billion in sales 12 years from now; that's a new one even for me! Pharmacyclics isn't worth the risk here if you ask me.

    Sell Short

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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