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Pitney Bowes Inc. Message Board

  • no_slappz no_slappz Aug 5, 2010 10:03 AM Flag

    PBI -- Screaming BUY

    Pitney Bowes is a screaming BUY.

    True, mail volumes are falling -- in the US. Is that all there is to this company? No. First, the company, like tobacco companies, has many international opportunities to replace revenue it's losing in the US.

    But, with respect to domestic business, there is a more important issue.

    The Post Office itself. It is a de facto arm of the government. It is a huge employer. Its employees are voters. Many of its jobs are simple, like mailman, but machines cannot perform them. Regular mail requires the foot-power of human mailmen or women.

    The US government -- via the Post Office -- wants to retain as many employees as possible. But some will go, replaced by technology. Good news for PBI.

    If the US wanted a truly efficient mail system, it would have allowed private operators to step in. But it will not. Never. We will keep this relic running forever.

    Obviously FedEx and UPS blew the doors off the Post Office in the package business. But the Post Office has continued to deliver packages even though it cannot cover its costs. At least it has begun to learn from its competitors.

    Notice there are now FedEx drop boxes outside many post office buildings.

    Now there is talk of ending Saturday deliveries, making mail delivery a 5-day-a-week operation. More good news for PBI.

    Why? Because compressing six days of work into five will take more technology. Thus, Pitney Bowes will play a bigger role in domestic mail.

    Daily deliveries from the milkman are something from the past. Millions of people were once paid to work at gas stations pumping gas. No more. Competition killed those jobs the same way it would finish off the Post Office if the government were to give in.

    But the Post Office/government has the sole right to deliver first-class mail. As long as the government-controlled Post Office maintains its role as the inefficient monopolist, Pitney Bowes has a secure future.

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    • US Post Office rationalization! awesome! Perhaps we should all look into buying up any available VHS equipment, 3.5 Floppies, cassette tapes, CRT monitors etc. I see some of that equipment in government still.

      US Mail may stick around a while longer. However, I sure wouldnt risk my investment $ on a company thats stakes its future on it. PBI needs a technological break through. At least Fedex, UPS and the freighters made up for the paper mail void with more shipping from Online sales. PBI isnt that fortunate.

      Take your lumps and move on. This dog has terminal fleas

      • 1 Reply to sdberg04
      • sdberg04, you wrote:

        <i>"US Post Office rationalization! awesome! Perhaps we should all look into buying up any available VHS equipment, 3.5 Floppies, cassette tapes, CRT monitors etc. I see some of that equipment in government still."</i>

        If the government were in charge of the computer industry, you can be sure we would have barely passed beyond the days of vacuum tubes and mainframes.

        In other words, you are right -- PBI will benefit from the government's devotion to keeping the past alive.

        That's not to say the stock is heading for the moon. But the price will dribble up and the company will pay its hefty dividend for the next several years at least.

    • So you have no clue what in the heck you are talking about.

    • Yes, Today is the day to buy. PE of 10 and a short interest that will need to cover before the ex-dividend date. Should run up Monday and Tuesday.

    • A good time to buy will probably be Monday or Tuesday to give it time for investors to digest the jobs data and recent restrictions from the Obama administration. Buying more anything below 20

      • 1 Reply to psyc14904
      • I think the stock will be sharply up after today for two reasons. X-Dividend will be next Wednesday which is paying a 7% rate. The jobs report is really bad, but these downsized companies like PBI will remain profitable. The mail will go through.

        The big problem is how are we going to pay retirements and benefits to all these federal, state and local employees? Many of the state retirement programs are under water waiting for a government bailout. Police get full retirement plus benefits at 25 years service. Teachers, fireman and government employees get full retirement and benefits at 30 years. These retirees numbers are increasing daily. States like California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey are all in big obligations to these retirement plans.

    • It's Obama's fault now......... lol..... maybe PB should be making guns and other weapons.... government seems to have an insatiable hunger them....

    • Let us know what else you are buying so we can stay FAR FAR away. This analysis to buy is as flawed as PB's growth strategy. Its not that what you say is not true or not supported by some facts on the ground. But none of that should compel anyone to buy this stock outside of some short/medium term dividend plays. That too will come to an end. Yes, they currently have nice cash flow off of the meter business but they have HUGE debt and no pedigree or inherent capability to excel in the technology spaces that could lead one out of of the low/no growth legacy manufacturing and postal finance world they are mired in. A 5+ Billion dollar company cannot sustain a growth strategy centered on a decrepid postal system that is shrinking ever so slightly every single day. Combine that with a total lack of much needed high technonoly leadership and zero future vision and you are left trying to evaluate the only real play for this stock.....when and how much someone will pay to buy the company, sell off the the good technology assets that still have residual value and milk the cash cow until the postal udder runs dry.

      • 2 Replies to bloviate_now
      • ive heard all of this before. fact is this cos management hasnt learned that the times are a changin and it will never be like it once was. as for the dividend i dont see how they can continue to raise their dividend every yr going forward. a dividend cut will be the end of this stock trading in the 20s

      • I totally agree.......... the only ones using the mails for first class are the older people (older than me, I'm going to be 60). Friends who work at the Post Office tell me how the "old folks" are up in arms everytime the cost of a stamp goes up. They're a dying breed. The only bills I pay by mail are creditors I don't like and the few fools who don't have on-line payment capabilities.

    • Thanks Murray

24.55+0.05(+0.20%)Oct 24 4:03 PMEDT

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