Vertex has about three years worth of cash left to bring one of their several candidates through development. What are their chances? Probably not bad for P38 and/or ICE, which are compounds that have already been through early development and show promise. But it's also important to note that those compounds are being brought through development by PARTNERS. At this point, Vertex could just lay all of R&D off, sit on their hands, and see what's going to happen with those compounds. In the end, if things go well, they get a good (probably not incredible) revenue stream: A double but not the home run investors are gambing on.
But obviously that's not what they've decided to do. That isn't Josh Boger's plan. He wants to turn Vertex into a full-service drug company, and that means taking compounds all the way through development. From their PR, it seems that Vertex is now going to focus efforts on development. Seems like a lot of hubris from where I sit, since Vertex can hardly hope to compete with big pharma in terms of basic resources (cash, infrastructure). But I guess we'll see.
In the end: Yes, Vertex, and everyone else in the drug discovery biz, now has too many candidates and not enough resources to bring them all through development. But the big guys can better afford to bring SOME of them through development. It will be interesting (and scary) to watch the smaller guys try to compete. If they get lucky, they'll get a hit and will have the cash to become large. If they don't get lucky (more likely), they'll either get absorbed intact by big pharma before the end is near, or else they'll get bone-picked by big pharma past the point when they should have packed it in.
(continued) Those companies who at least had the good sense to partner some of their programs with big pharma (such as Vertex) will have more breathing room. But the end is still looming--something will have to change. You can't continue to sell the idea that you are going to become big pharma yourself forever. Either you need to make it happen or else capitulate.
but it will takr to much time to reply for every nonsense he wrote. Just to write for example "..I would say that the small guys can't honestly claim any major advantages at this point..." shows that he didn't follow the science of most biotech/pharma industry. The major breakthrough are still done in biotechs not in big pharma (look on proteosome inhibitors just to give you one relative unimportant idea etc. etc. etc.) Then "..So everyone can produce more candidates than they can handle..." is complete BS. On of the big problems in the moment in pharma/biotech is that they can't produce enough good hits. There is a big problem of non existing good libraries. Combichem gives you only a relativly small set of relative simple molecules and pharma/biotech now starts to find out that because you can only use realtive limited set of reactions for combichem that a lot of libraries are relative similar. Which means that getting a good hit isn't this easy.
So this are just to point to show you that bioduude has only a very limited idea about drug discovery research which you can't take serious. And it would take to much time to go through this complete BS he wrote.
Nice try. But it is clear that you never worked in biotech/pharmaceutical industry. You have no idea how research/drug discovery is done. You sound like somebody who read some kind of book and didn't understand. Keep on living in your dream world.