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<<VRTX will be acquired in 2004 and SOONER than later>>
I believe you or somewone else also said in a previous posts that there will be a friendly takeover.
I will not count on a friendly takeover. Any body who has watched Boger's actions since he was at Merck and knows why he left and has watched him mange VRTX knows that he has a very BIG ego--one of the reasons he blew millions of our shareholder dollars on Aurora and other stupid companies as well as getting into big unneeded lease agreements that we lost I believe $50+ mil on. This big ego would not allow him to sell the company since he won't be the number one in the company any more. Regardless of how much they offer for VRTX I do not believe he will sell.
Now as far as an unfriendly takeover is concerned, he has made sure there is a big poison pill in place. The question is, is there a big pharma willing to get involved in fighting the poison pill in courts. I do not have the answer to that!
They can't use the poison pill in the event of a friendly takeover. And since institutions own more than 70% of VRTX, a hostile takeover is impossible anyway.
As I said before, the board of directors has to vote according to the instructions from the majority shareholders -- the institutions. Therefore, if the institutions (top 15) want a takeover, there will be one and it will be a friendly takeover.
Keep in mind that the same institutions that own most of VRTX also have a MUCH LARGER INVESTMENT IN SGP. Clearly, they would gain from an acquisition by SGP IN BOTH STOCKS.
In other owrds, the poison pill is nothing but a gimmick in this case.
Think about it. But DON'T BE FOOLED by disinformation (especially about the poison pill) posted on this board.
Good Luck to ALL!
<<how big of a poison pill? can you provide more info?>>
from the 10K report:
1. Directors (most often they follow Boger�s recommendations) have the authority to adjourn annual meetings.
2. Certain procedures of by-laws require 80% of shareholders� approval to be amended (not 50% as generally is assumed by people who do not read annual reports).
3. If a person or group acquires 15% or more of VRTX shares, VRTX can issue preferred stock rights to the remaining shareholders which would entitle them to free additional shares (usually one for one) if the 15% group tries to acquire the company by a hostile tender offer.(This would make a hostile takeover very expenssive unless it is overturned by courts or over 80% of shareholders.)
Will Josh Boger sell?
First, since the top 15 institutions own more than 50% of the shares of VRTX, they will decide whether a takeover will take place. The board of directors has to vote according to the preference of the majority shareholders whom they represent.
Most of these INSTITUTIONS HAVE MUCH LARGER INVESTMENTS IN SGP (than in VRTX). For example, the largest owner in VRTX is Wellington, which owns 10.7 million shares worth $111 million. In comparison, the value of Wellington's investment in SGP is $1.7 Billion (15 times larger than in VRTX).
Similarly, FMR (2nd largest) has $86 million in VRTX and $1.33 Billion in SGP (also 15-times larger than in VRTX). And Price-T-Rowe (3rd largest) has an investment of $277 million in SGP but only $37 million in VRTX.
Thus, they would obviously push for the acquisition of VRTX now that it's clear SGP will gain an enormous competitive advantage in the HCV market by acquiring VRTX. Since their investments in SGP are so much larger than in VRTX, these institutions would clearly prefer that SGP would rise even at the expense of their VRTX investments. Naturally, as a result of the acquisition, their VRTX investment would rise immediately and their SGP investments will continue to appreciate for the long term.
The point is that the institutions, which own most of VRTX, will undoubtedly support a takeover by SGP to ensure its growth. And again, since the top 15 institutions own more than 50% of VRTX, the takeover by SGP will obviously be a FRIENDLY one.
As for Josh Boger, he will expectedly be offered incentives (e.g., better pay, more stock options, hefty retirement plans, etc.) that he won't be able to refuse. At the same time, he will sharply gain from an acquisition because of the large number of shares that he owns (1.08 million shares). Other VRTX executives will also gain.
We, the VRTX shareholders, cannot expect that VRTX executives will decline their once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for windfall gains. After all, hundreds of biotech executives, before them, agreed to numerous takeover deals.
That's the way this business works.
Think about it. But DON'T BE FOOLED by disinformation posted on this board.
For ownership in VRTX, see:
Good Luck to ALL!
VRTX has already announced its intent to commercialize Merimepodib for the treatment of HCV. This is not surprising since Merimepodib has resulted in complete virologic response in 86% of HCV patients who were non-responsive to IFN+Ribavirin therapy (!!).
'"Merimepodib has been selected for full development and commercialization because of its demonstrated clinical potential as an antiviral agent, and because it represents a commercial opportunity in a high value, specialist- focused market," stated Joshua Boger, Ph.D., Chairman and CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals.'
In the meantime, "Vertex has identified a commercially scalable process for drug synthesis and FOR THE MANUFACTURE of an oral formulation of merimepodib. Additionally, 6-month and 12-MONTH TOXICITIES STUDIES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED."
In other words, the long-term toxicity studies have shown that Merimepodib is safe. And the manufacturing process for Merimepodib has already been selected.
Folks, VRTX is ready for its 3rd COMMERCIAL product. And this one is FULLY OWNED BY VRTX.
Also, VX-950, VRTX's HCV protease inhibitor, has been shown to retain "FULL in vitro POTENCY AGAINST HCV REPLICON STRAINS RESISTANT to another investigational HCV protease inhibitor currently being developed by another company."
"In a conference presentation entitled �VX-950: A Tight-Binding HCV Protease Inhibitor with a Superior Sustained Inhibitory Response in HCV Replicon Cells,� virologist Ann Kwong, Ph.D., Head of Cell Biology and Infectious Disease at Vertex, reported the first data using an innovative adaptation of the HCV replicon assay commonly utilized to measure the potency of antiviral compounds against HCV. Vertex scientists used the HCV replicon assay system to evaluate how HCV protease inhibitors sustain potency over a period of four weeks. In these experiments, HCV replicon cells, which mimic the intracellular replication of HCV, were treated with VX-950 and were evaluated at multiple time points. In one experiment, treatment with VX-950 for nine days reduced HCV RNA by almost 10,000-fold (4 log10). In another experiment, HCV replicon cells treated with VX-950 for thirteen days exhibited viral clearance at day thirteen, and no rebound of HCV viral RNA was observed at day twenty-seven." (see link below)
THE POINT IS THAT SGP MUST ACQUIRE VRTX BECAUSE MERIMEPODIB WILL CLEARLY GIVE IT A TREMENDOUS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE $2.5-BILLION HCV MARKET (Roche won't be competitive any longer). And at the same time, SGP will also get VX-950, a protease inhibitor that should be a part of ALL future drug cocktails for the treatment of HCV. The fact that VX-950 is SUPERIOR to its main competition makes VRTX even more ESSENTIAL to SGP's future. The rest of the pipeline will be a nice "icing on the cake" for SGP.
Think about it. But DON'T BE FOOLED by disinformation posted on this board. And GET READY for SGP is not likely to wait long for the fear that another company may make the move for VRTX. It now seems CLEAR that 2004 will be an EXCELLENT YEAR for VRTX shareholders.
For more on VX-950, see:
HAPPY NEW YEAR and Good Luck to ALL!