Thinking back to the reason's I first started buying VRTX about eight year's ago, VRTX's 2004 outlook at the J.P. Morgan conference is certainly a disappointment. Very little on the near term horizon to get excited about. The once significant collaborative partnering component of VRTX's revenues has melted away to almost nothing. The current and projected cash burn rate is appalling. It's now apparent to me this company has little or no chance of going it alone and becoming a major drug company. They need a new business model.
Painfully, I would have to say the current stock price seems to have this company valued about right. It's time for a management change!
Bioduuude knows his stuff, though I have never read the Billion dollar molecule it was the rave when I did my internship at vertex.
What I do know is:
Vertex IS BOGER'S BABY, the guy started with a chemistry set as a kid dreaming. Then he starting Vertex, his dream. To "fire" that man is NOT RIGHT. It is my belief also that he will go kicking and screaming, if the BOD succeds.
1) Many of Vertex' prime candidates are tied up in collaborations. Not all, but many. Not appealing for a buyout.
2) While I don't doubt Sato would sell out, get rich, and never look back, that's surely not ture of Boger. This is Boger's baby, and if he sells out instead of building Vertex into the "next big drug company", that's capitulation and failure for him. He may be forced into something at this point, but "forced" is the operative word. He won't go quietly. (Read The Billion $$ Molecule for more insight into Boger).
Boger is NOT going to try to convince the BOD to sell. In fact, I expect it would be the opposite: Boger arguing with them to hold on.