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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • Does anyone think this is a stock worth owning?

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    • Muss:
      Well said! Sounds like you follow this company pretty closely. Do you (or anyone else) know about the pipeline? Do they have anything that anyone else would want? The consensus here seems to be that the business model sucks. Maybe their pipeline could compensate for some serious weakness at the helm.
      JR
      VRTX-home of the billion dollar molecule (1993)

    • Gladpick,

      Sadly obvious how poorly Vertex has been managed. There are not one or two examples of poor management decisons but instead, there are MANY examples.

      I'd like to see at least someone be held accountable and dismissed. I agree with you- it probably will not happen, yet another reason why Vertex is a second rate company when it could be blazing a trail. Let's see if they can further reduce the burn and actually do a deal, or bring what's left of their pipeline forward in a meaningful way (vs. fluff/smoke and mirrors). Getting rid of the bad management would be a great start. No, I also don't think they have the balls to be bold and do the obvious.

      anon

    • No lets hope for a buyout!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      only way out now, its a shame but hope it happens and very soon.

    • anon,

      As you know I too am a frustrated bagholder. You are echoing some of the stuff I have been saying in the past.

      The problem we have is we are at the mercy of institutional shareholders who hold 83% of the shares. Add that to 5% insider shares and that leaves 12% for individual holder who own direct shares.

      So unless these institutions demand accountability and change nothing is going to happen. The problem is some of the institutions that have banking relationship with VRTX may not want to upset Boger for the fear of losing VRTX's banking business.
      They also may not have a clue as to whom they could select to replace him.

      Hey people out there let's talk about some possible replacements for the two bozos--Boger and Sato!

    • I believe in the vernacular it's called chutzpah!

    • It works for them!

    • Leadership is lacking in this company as is accountability. Spring is almost here and still nothing has been done to correct the fiasco of the past few years. Who would of thought that the leadership would still be in place after:

      - a 45 million dollar real estate throwaway

      - two of the major initiatives at the company get canned (LLY dropping the HCV collab and the halted AVE clinical trial)

      - no major deals in how many years?

      - buying a company (Aurora) for technology (instead of to fortify the pipeline) and then selling off major components of Aurora for pittance

      - the ridiculous yearly burn with so little to show for it

      - the poor long term financial shape of the company

      - the large amount of insider selling

      I wonder if this company knows what the word accountability means? I wonder if senior management got a raise for their efforts this past year? No one got the boot (Sato, Boger, etc), which is very sad. A company with more of a clue would have done something about this horrific trail of bad management decisions a long time ago.

      I can't see why one would want to buy this stock. I'm too much a bagholder to sell at the moment.

      anon

    • [In the last 21 months, he has sold between 25-30% of his position. It's actually not a significant amount over that length of time, and something most execs do to protect their downside - whether or not the company's prospects are good, bad or otherwise.]

      When a company is bleeding cash and it's stock price is dropping like a rock, regular insider selling is VERY BAD FORM. Look for it to end over the next few months or the plummeting stock price will be the least of his worries. It's called LEADERSHIP. [Pretty soon, it will be called ATTRITION, or maybe LAYOFFS.]
      JR

    • Well, I would look awfully stupid if I said anything but yes - since I myself am very long on VRTX. A lot of us have been smacked around the past couple years, but that doesn't necessarily concern a new potential investor such as yourself. That is as long as what made this stock plummet is behind us.

      Positives:

      1) Cheap, cheap cheap! I think VRTX is fair valued at this price. Used to be way overvalued, but a nice buy here. Although I would wait until the economy starts breathing again.

      2) Pralnacasan. The plug was pulled quite possibly prematurely last November. Aventis (VRTX's partner) ran a very, very high dosage toxicology study that showed toxic effects not seen before. Well, even a 5 year old could have predicted that one! So I say look for it to come back to life in the next 12 months or so once further testing eases fears at the FDA. This is a phase IIb RA/OA candidate.

      3) VX-497. Excellent statistical results in a recent phase II HCV trial. The number of patients was very low, but even so, the potential is there. Quite possibly could be fast tracked as well...

      4) VX-950. The "leader" in the world of HCV proteases. Now that may mean something someday, or it may not, but if the day comes when there is solid clinical data with this compound in phase III (or even late phase II since it is the lead candidate out there) the share price will fly.

      5) VX-680. A brand new avenue has been opened up targeting cancer with this compound. Truly a leader in this new field of Aurora kinases. Small molecules are very difficult to come by with cancer. It has a long way to go to make money for VRTX, but no one can doubt the scientific significance of the work that was done. Moral victories don't mean much to my wallet though, so either this - or another compound of its kind must get pushed to the end. Guarenteed fast track here with any quality early clinical results.

      Negatives:

      1) Management is a bunch of freaking losers. No two ways about it. For the most part, they have no experience with late stage clinical development, and they are some of the worst business savy(less) punks around. VRTX shareholders all agree that the president should be fired. Unfortunately we don't have the clout to run her out. If anyone reading this "knows" people at one of the large institutional holders of VRTX - do us all a favor and push for her resignation. Hell, our stock price would shoot up a couple dollars just on that announcement. Her track record sucks, she has presided over the worst years in this company's short lived existence, and she reaps $38,000 a week in doing so. Pathetic.

      2) Money. Running out of time to develop these potential blockbusters. In my estimation, assuming no new deals on the horizen, VRTX has about 2-3 good years left.

      So in all, it is a good investement if 3 things happen. Management gets changed and/or realizes just how stupid they are and changes themselves, big dollar deals are worked with big pharma to help pay the bills, and solid data comes from the clinic.

      I think that the 2nd and 3rd are actually a very good possibility. The 1st however looks bleak.

      • 2 Replies to fade6
      • you wrote:
        I think that the 2nd and 3rd are actually a very good possibility. The 1st however looks bleak.
        =====

        yep. You sort of said it, but it's worth emphasizing that drugs are very expensive to produce, and for a large pharm to build the pipeline that vrtx already has in place would cost a huge amount of money. It would be far easier, and much more cost effective, to simply buy vrtx. Net of cash/debt, vrtx is a steal at 500MM (*/- a few bucks), with perhaps an acquisition value north of 750MM.

      • You could try: InvestorInfo@vrtx.com or call Marion Marks at 617.444.6668

        As for management-- I couldn't comment. My investment is based on the science, which is pretty good. Unfortunately, my opinion alone isn't worth squat.

    • you wrote:
      Does anyone think this is a stock worth owning?
      =======

      well, at this point, you might as well ask that of all stocks!

 
VRTX
97.28-0.86(-0.88%)12:29 PMEDT

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