BTW, your TA analysis posts were very helpful. The NASDAQ seems to have a very different story to tell. I am not any where near your TA level. It would be much appreciated if you could find some time to look at it. Thanks.
thank you. I feel the markets are moving into tops. There are divergences among the 3, with the S&P lagging, and the Nasdaq lagging more. healthy markets should be led by the Nas. Furthermore, a small number of Dow stocks are now pushing the index higher. Advance/Decline line shows weakening breadth, with fewer stocks participating. Volume on this advance has also been waning. New high today on even lighter volume, but I don't think top is in yet. Another indicator is the 5 day sum of Advancing volume. It peaks before the market does. It peaked in early January, and is at a lower high with the Dow at a higher high. Patterns are not clear at the moment, but that is not unusual when things are topping.
The Nas. crash and the crash of '29 in the Dow have some remarkable similarities. Both lost over 80%, both took about 3 years, and both doubled on their first leg up out of the bear market low. What the Dow did next back then was retrace 62% of its prior gain, then started upward again. The 4 year cycle has an excellent track record. Markets tend to fall sharply into those 4 year cycle lows, and one is due for late this year or early next. In summary, I do expect some further rally, especially into March 1'st plus or minus a couple of trading days, but I do think we are in the 9'th inning. JMHO.