I totally concur on 1998. I felt our policy was too tight and it exacerbated the problem. He drops rates one time, and is hailed a hero. Oh, then there's that 1990 problem he had. Didn't realize we were in recession until we were coming out of it. Actually, in 2000, I was on the record for predicting recession because he went to far. And that was well before the rate hikes ended. I am not necessarily predicting a recession, but it wouldn't surprise me either. The yield curve is important to the markets IMO. And, banks can't like borrowing short and lending long for about the same rate. Not good for margins.