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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • gladpick gladpick Feb 21, 2006 12:03 PM Flag

    It is not just VRTX

    technology and biotechs are getting killed. hopefully there will be a reversal!

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    • You are funny. i like your post. No offense mm.

    • i agree that many brokerage houses use it. In fact in 1981 my broker at paine webber who was a strict TA trader and was very good at it was telling me that he was constantly being pressured by the top managers to train other brokers to use TA for their clients. he was saying that that activity was taking time away from his own clients but he felt he had to do it.

    • Housing has been getting soft in the rest of the country. FL is going to have more than double the condos soon. In LA, there was a burst of demand for housing and builders went nuts. Now houses are not selling as much. Today, the yield curve went toward more inversion and if the Fed does raise another 0.25%, we got a classic. A recession at this stage with all the housing leverage, hi prices would hurt.

    • I typed a long post detailing how and why I called the 10/02 low 10 days in advance, to within 1 day, and how that 2 page discussion ended up with me ghost-writing some TA articles for a tech. analyst who did respond to me.

      I have given you way more info than you deserve, really, and have gotten nothing back.

      Oh, and I do miss calls too. Most understand that subjectivity will do that, and no one is perfect, but I know you would be the first one saying "See! SEE! I told you so!".

    • The proof is in the results. I have them. In fact, many against ta use your argument against you. THey usually say it is a self-fullfilling prophecy. I have a question for you. I have a ton of posts on here of predictions with chart explanations that have happened. I actually don't recall missing any on here, as I usually post my strongest feelings.
      How come you can't seem to find it in your heart to even acknowledge one of them? You did "conveniently" disappear when my calls were happening just like I posted. I guess if a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it.....
      Man, you have no idea how much I have studied the markets.

      I will answer your last question again, hopefully in a way you can understand.
      As far as I know, EVERYONE who trades stocks is human (although sometimes I wonder). Human emotion is something NO ONE is immune from. It shows up in charts, because it is those emotions, primarily fear and greed, which are the basis for buy/sell decisions. You cannot "exploit out" human emotion, because if you did, we would all be computers.
      About 6 or 7 years ago, I was trading options pretty heavily. I had a 75% rate of plus trades. Even you would have to admit that is excellent. 500% return on capital in 4 months.
      Human emotion got me. I felt I couldn't miss, because I wasn't. Then Brazil devalues their currency, and the market tanks 250 points at the open, and I am holding OEX calls. I sold at the open out of FEAR. No chart reason, just fear. Didn't want it to be worse than it was. Logical thought escaped me long enough to sell at that point. Middle of the day, market comes back a lot, as I should have known by how the charts were. I didn't lose on that trade because of TA. I lost on that trade because I DIDN"T use it. Human emotion. Get it? No one is immune. Still had a profitable 4 months, even after that issue, but there are other things involved in trading.

      Read any Elliott wave book, and maybe you'll understand.

      My answer to your question, was, is, and always will be HUMAN EMOTION.
      The second answer is, it isn't easy. It isn't supposed to be. There are just as many who don't believe in it, which is another reason why it does work. Analysis, even fund., is subjective. If you are looking for the Holy Grail, good luck. It doesn't exist. That is what you want for proof, but you are the only one who thinks that is the ultimate proof.

      Second question. I guess you are saying that all of my accurate calls and profitable trades are just luck, even though over 12 years, it is greater than a coin flip?

    • Well, I guess stymie's right: this is a matter akin to religion, and no one's mind is going to be changed.

      As a matter of fact, there have been studies on TA (although I couldn't quote chapter and verse at present) and none has ever demonstrated any predictive value above chance.

      And you still haven't answer the point that any advantage in predicting price movement conferred by TA would have been exploited out of existence by the investment houses long ago.

    • I don't like being defensive and taking that tone. You have made your feelings clear, that is known. Everyone knows where I stand. Your criticism of me was on stuff way out of context and definition. Since I don't want to act in this manner, I think it is best to put you on ignore soon. This way I won't be tempted to go off like that, not out of anything more than that. If I don't respond to you after the near future, you'll know why.
      Really, you kinda warned the world like we are dangerous.

      This really is not appropriate for this board as it has nothing to do with VRTX. To those who want to talk about VRTX, I apologize for wasting this many posts on this.

    • Oh, channeling is another technique which I have not posted on. It is a technique, but again, seeing that in your post is due to you not really knowing the difference. There is a big difference.

      I will try for the 5th time to help you understand the meaning of that post you inaccurately PARAPHRASE.

      Resistance points are where often times a stock will pause, or at least temporarily be repelled. It does not make any claims as to whether or not that level will be exceeded or not. It just says its there. That's it. It is really that simple. It is not a ceiling, as that says it cannot be exceeded. Nor is it a channel, which tops of channels are hit, but the stock can rise or fall with them. Short term traders often use them.

      Ok, you want proof? Here is some more. I had a position in IMCL before the Stewart thing. The day it hit 75 for a new all time high (at the time), it turned down and closed the day lower on very heavy volume. As my father-in-law is my witness, I said "Something is wrong here. I don't know what it is, but eventually we will find out." It was an outside down key reversal day. Never want to see that at a new high, especially with that kind of volume. I knew that it would move back towards its highs, so instead of selling at 70, I sold at 72.36. It peaked just above that. Nice H&S top too, by the way. It slides to 55, and no news. Then the news hits. It gaps down into the mid 40's. Goes down to 6.

      The fundies told us there was something wrong at 45. I said there was something wrong at 70. This, is merely fact.

    • Too late. You are basically saying I partly earn my living by a crooked means. I will not tolerate that. I work very hard at what I do.
      I know what I wrote. Find it if you want. The problem here is point of view. You don't really know the definition of resistance.
      It was broken. That is not even a topic worthy of debate.

      I have nothing to prove. Look back at my calls. You tell me. You HAVE NEVER ONCE ACKNOWLEDGED MY CALL ON NAT GAS. Nor my calls on VRTX. Nor my calls that I SHARED on options trades.

      What your idea of what TA is, and what it is are vastly different things. No one has ever claimed to know an exact price at an exact time. That you make it that is ridiculous.
      In answer to your last question, it is quite simple. It is a combination of dumb money, and the fact that human emotion is the driver. Unless you are not human, you are governed by it. That shows up in the charts. Period.

      I don't mind you challenging me if you offerred anything of substance. Haven't seen anything but red herrings yet. Show me studies. It is the least you can do, I have shown you better. RESULTS. Since I have those as a matter of public record, it is your turn to provide. And don't pounce on the next call I miss, because no one ever claimed anything was perfect. It is subjective, and an art. Another reason why it still works.

    • Well now, I don't want to get heated - one must be thick-skinned enough to have one's ideas challenged without taking it personally, or democracy won't work. I have said before that I think you're an excellent contributor on fundamental grounds.

      Having said that, I ask that you go back and check your own post. You said the upper limit of the channel was $33. And I never claimed that you recommended selling.

      As for proof that TA is hooey, you're asking me to prove a negative. Perhaps it's up to you to prove TA is valid! I did once offer a challenge, to compare the accuracy of your price predictions with my semi-random intuitions, and you declined.

      And how do you answer the point that any advantage in predicting price movement confered by TA would have been exploited out of existence by the investment houses long ago?

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