I made a a few dollars being long this vrtx and have been expecting a possible pullback to $36. The more I look at the charts and think strategy I think the best play is to be short (getting long puts myself) and risk a close above 44.71 the recent high. I fully expect it to break through 36 then look to fill the gap from 1/5/06. This could take a while to play out but I think it will happen before the next earnings announcement comes out.
I think you are worried too much about a cure ruining their product. How long would it take to cure Hep C in the US? 10-15 years? There's a vaccine for Hep B and it is not cured.
How long do you expect the drug to last anyway before a better drug comes along? (ask wind waker) before it goes generic?
Drugs always fade away due to patents or competition whether they cure or not. You can't expect them to last forever. All drug companies must continually innovate to protect their market or go after new ones.
This cure medicine point is a very good one. All these companies DO NOT want to find a cure. All they want is for patients to keep taking mediciine forever and to keep them alive but suffering.
I have not seen a single medicine come out in the last 10 years that actually cures a disease (kinda like antibiotics). Imagine a antibiotic that does not fix you but you have to keep taking it for the rest of your life. Ultimately you die of the bug.
These companies are not interested in cures. They are interested in elongating the life and suffering of people such that they can sell more drugs.
They may charge the amount equivalent to what is being charged for the current standard of care even though it takes a much shorter time to achieve. The Berstein analyst report came up with $65,000 per patient and did not include the cost savings of liver transplants, etc. When I locate the report (I misplaced it) I will post more about the report.
I have heard that transplants (not sure if liver is different, this was about kidney) can cost 300k at least, with anti-rejection meds for life, etc. I doubt that would be the extent of it either.
If VRTX does achieve a cure, yes it could be a limiting factor. However, they could charge top dollar for the drug and Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance would pay. Way cheaper than paying for chronic care, liver transplants.... anybody here knows how much one these cost including long term care, anti rejection drugs?
Then there is the European Union with probably 350M pop and similar incidents.
After this market, there is the mass market of Asia, which now will be able to afford treatment.
I am going to let somebody else do the math. Don't forget the company is not a one trick pony either. They have a fundamental understanding of the basic sciences and a good pipeline.
I think that could be overcome by charging higher for a shorter period of time.
A good cure is arguably worth even more than current tx. You will need less re-treatment, shorter periods of other drugs, hopefully no riba, which means no drugs that are needed to counter that poison's effects, less time away from work, etc.
Putting my morals to one side for a sec, if patients have no detectable virus after a period of use, wouldn't that limit the $$$$ potential of the drug in that it would be used for a short period to cure rather than for a long period to treat a chroinic illness?