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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • stymie_da_fool stymie_da_fool Apr 7, 2006 10:11 PM Flag

    mm_lusk and gang


    Lemme show you the power of TA. I posted this to a friend (now deceased, believe it or not) on another board whom I had talked into buying alot of VRTX. He was up big but sold too early and I was admonishing him on how he should have played it. Please, thou, avoid reading the negative commentary, I've posted it before and I won't post it again, but for those that know me you'll see I had planned on selling long before I did.

    Note the date and note the target for a VRTX top. Now tell me the power of TA is just a bunch of voodoo higgley-piggly.

    G'head, I dare ya.

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    • since all you do is spew half-truths and lies, your innuendo isn't going to work here either. The decline did start with the 702 news, and has been explained technically on here but a few of us. Funny how you don't post like this on IDIX, which has known, real issues.

    • Papa... there are innovators all over the world. The US did produce a lot of inventions, etc because of access to capital and opportunities. However, this is happening in the rest of the worl now as well.

      Even in terms of people, great strides were made in this country because of immigrant engineers, scientists, etc. The nuclear bomb effort in the US were spearhead by Jewish German refugees (Einstein, Oppenheimer), Italians, etc. Intel was founded among others by an immigrant from Hungary(?). The Appolo program was run by some ex-card carrying Nazis from Peenemunde. Globally the Otto and Diesel engine were invented in Europe.

      I do think the American Revolution... and the French Revolution (as bloody as it was) unleashed the modern era of change for the better. Even WWI+II had the effect of bringing to an end oppressive empires like the British Raj. But I think the real revolution in recent times was the PC, internet, fiberoptics and wireless communications. It is still happening.

    • probio!
      remember how all the Big Pharmas were beating on probio's patents? yeeeh, as a private biotech running short on cash, how can you survive?
      Had probio more intensively engaged in chemistry they could have hit more than one homerun, keep my fingers crossed for them on their efforts in CNS.

      told you, lots of innovators all over the place, not just in america :-)

    • >>Last name of Evans, perhaps?

      no, no, not UK :-)

      hint: sold his diabetes franchise to OSI :-)

    • great call, stymie, but I doubt your reasoning

      <<where they admit VX-950 costs way too much to make and still make a profit.<<

      a tetrapeptide even with two rather exotic aminoacids - ketoacid, pyrrolidine moiety - should be doable, JB mentioned in one of his last presentations VRTX is already on tons scale for registration batches.

      all they need for P II studies is less than 10 kg,

      and don't forget to include the price per treatment VRTX is going to charge when calculating profis - there are no problems with profitability of VX-950

      at least in my assessment :-)

      take care and have a nice weekend

      • 3 Replies to papaalien2000
      • Good info about the supply for pphase II. Thanks.

      • I agree with papa's assessment. VRTX was able to produce 750mg*3*28 = 756 gms. In their upcoming 200 pt trial if only 3/4 get the drug they will need 750*3*150*90 = 30,375 gms or 400 x the drug... so it is a challenge.

        I am not a chemist, but my experience with chemical and biochem processes, most of them can be scaled at the pilot level and production level. At lot of strides have been made in process control in the last few years, even though LLY gave up. The whole manufacturing can be outsourced to places like India where labor is still cheaper than here and there are IPR protections.

        In terms of profitability, prices that insurance companies and Medicare/caid have been willing to pay have gone up. Treatment for lung cancer, colon cancer, etc now costs 200k with drugs from DNA, Novartis, etc... and the insurance companies pay. Guess what? Most of these expensive treatments just buy a few months of life on the average!

        VX-950 has the to potential to cure the disease and the use of combo drugs like IFN have the potential to eliminate mutants especially due to the rapid decline of the virus.

        The bulks of HepC patiemt got the disease due to contaminated blood supply and that number is coming down. New patients is mostly due to IVDA, unprotected sex, etc. However, the number of symptomatic patients is from the earlier group.

        The fact that VX-950 is 3x day is not an issue. I see poor and rich patients come to the clinic with bags of meds that they have to take several times per day... including insulin that is given 2x per day. Even with PegIFN, this combo will be much better tolerated than SOCx1 year ... and the nasty chemo that is still given.

        Sure there will be competition... but I do not see anybody else standing besides SCH and their stuff has not been shown to be as effective. IDIX? Heck, they are on their knees begging to their majority owner and got thrown a bone.

        Yea, the stock price fell and there are risks... a lot of risks... binLaden could be coming to town, etc. The Fed could go crazy, etc but to make money, one has to be a long term investor whether it is in stocks, or real estate. Look at Buffet. .. but most who bought this early enough are still positive.

        My guess is that a couple of fnds sold the stock and kicked in a bunch of stops... and the shorts did the rest. Any real bad news? No really... it would have leaked by now to the mainstream. Regardless, these issue will be address in the Apr-26 news release.

    • stymie, so sorry to hear about your friend.

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