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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • sharadbhoj sharadbhoj Apr 26, 2006 2:19 PM Flag

    My Analysis

    Any thoughtful replies will be appreciated.

    I believe this stock will return to mid 20s soon for the following reasons:

    1) Bleeding cash at an insane speed quarter after quarter
    2) Amount of outstanding stock increasing at insane pace. (This will continue to increase as they will need to raise more money in the quarters to come).
    3) 950 won't see the light of the day before 2009 atleast. (With all the huge risks associated with a succesful drug trial. look at the %s of successful drug trials yourself!)
    4) classic example of overcompensated management.
    5) without 950, stock should not be valued more than $12.

    Just my opinion, I got out at 38. Will only enter in mid 20s.


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    • Did not think so but your sentence below triped me:

      <<Yes, but who has been advocating buying at this time or are you just pointing out the painfully obvious? >>

      So by "the painfully obvious" I gather you were talking about the drop today? Sorry if I did not understand what you meant. Any way I would have been very surprized if you would have shorted. Thanks for replying stymie.

    • BTW, I am re-working my 3 Peaks and Domed House pattern, and preliminary indications would be that after mid May, the market will have increased risks for a top, but I don't expect any meaningful decline to start since then. My past cycle dates were right on as far as turning points, but none have led to anything more then a short term decline. That later May date might be different in that respect.

    • As I mentioned in my first post, I got out at 38. I would not short this stock unless it would reach its 52 wk high on no good news. (pure spec play).

      I was contemplating between entering now or in 20s. Will see you in 20s. If it does not get there, it will be a boat I missed. no biggie. Just feels like too much of a risk getting in now.

    • <<or are you just pointing out the painfully obvious? >>
      sounds like you are short VRTX. would you care to comment?

    • <<but what the hell; if its too rich for your blood...move on. >>
      Excuse me but I think you are somewhat naive. Can't you recognize a short? His post is screaming that he is SHORT. He is here bashing the stock and after he covers his short you will not hear from him until he comes back as a short again.

    • The only way this stock goes back down into the 20's or lower will be because something went wrong in the 2nd trial phase of 950. If all goes well you won't see the 20's until we see 120.

    • of course, you could have bought at under 10 like many of did. When I bought at 9, yeah, I would have settled for 30 by now.

    • Personal risk tolerance AND LOGICAL ENTRY POINT are keys to making money in the market.

      As a regular investor, I think Vrtx is a bad gamble at anything above $30.

      I will join you guys in the 20s and see you then.

    • someone decided to test the 2 together (not VRTX) and found a benefit. It happend in the area of HIV, don't know why you are so "worried".

      But, you have never posted here before, and are a shorty who will likely do everything possible to distort, but that isn't anything new here.
      BTW, you don't have to justify your short position to us, nor get our reassurance. Personally, I don't care if you are short or long. What you do doesn't how I invest or trade.

    • You are right. it is a big gamble. my only point is the gamble is worth getting into at lower prices and not at $34-35. this high prices seems to have a lot of hopes of success built into it.

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