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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • rtfa50 rtfa50 May 21, 2006 7:53 PM Flag

    Why not VX-950 in later stages???

    All patients in that 28-day trial have since been given regular treatments with interferon and ribavirin -- but not with VX-950 -- to prevent any remaining traces of the virus from replicating.

    In this PR today why was VX-950 not given to
    the patients in the later stages?

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    • I am looking at some really ugly charts... besides housing (TOL, HOV), there are the metals like FCX, PD, ATI. Then the emerging markets like IIF, TTM, etc. Commodities like Gold, Platinum, Oil have not cracked yet... but I think it is a matter of time.

      Important not to get caught by a falling knife. We will get a lot of dead cat bounces. A better investment would be a HDTV... a big one.

    • I think it goes back to what I have been pounding the table on. Correlations, correlations, correlations.......
      I never bet on a correlation changing until AFTER it does. It is not a good idea to do so.
      Gold has moved higher WITH the market, so, unless it changes correlation (to the way it used to be negatively correlated), it will get hit just as stocks will.
      There is an island reversal top on gold with a breakaway gap. Also seen on Silver. Never bullish when those commodities are flying high WITH the market (and interest rates had been spiking too). If correlations hold, bond yields should drop in a correction, gold, silver and stocks would move lower, and oil and gasoline SHOULD also. Other factors there though.

    • I don't remember if I posted this here, or in an email to stymie, but I had a projection on crude to 67.34, and it did hit 67.42. Too early to tell if it projects lower still, but it is nice seeing it fall. Anyone remember when CNBC was saying the rising oil prices were hurting the markets (when oil would rise, and the dow would move down slightly)?

      By their logic, with oil falling, the market should be rising, so why did the futures fall 6 points? Well, we know the answer, I am just picking on them.

    • thanks, normally a bear or correction lasts 1/3 to 1/4 the prior bull move, but I think this one will be shorter. One thing I have noticed is that when a 4 year cycle top comes in very late, the correction tends to not last as long, but be much sharper than a gradual decline would be. This isn't a rule, just a tendency. The 4 year cycle low is due not until later this year at the earliest, possibly early next. We'll have to see how ths develops.


      I am glad I bailed out of metals, emerging markets, etc between last Friday and Monday am. Heck, I should have bailed all out on Wed+Thu.

      With all metals, NGas, Naz, and now Emerging Markets hitting the fan, this looks like the real McCoy. India had among the strongest of the stocks markets in Asia. Now I am waiting for Gold and Crude to crap out.

      We got to give Ewave credit... this call, including the explanations of cycles, beats anything any market call I have seen or read over the years.

      I had reduced my core position in VRTX... but did not want to reduce the core. This stock could be a 10 bagger at this price.

      I think the US markets are in secular decline and the future will be in Asia.

      Ewave... how long this bear market is supposed to last? Usually they last 9-18 months. In 2000, the bear market lasted longer... first it was 9-11, then Iraq. I increased positions in 2002 end, but took a wack but held on with the Iraq War... I could nore believe Bubba would ride into Iraq for real.

      This time we got the impending Iran adventure.

    • I would not get too excited about the stock. There will be bounces all over due to the general market. I do believe that the overall trend of the markets is down, especially in the US... till the year end. I feel that the Fed has overdone in terms of liquidity and now they will have to soak a lot of it back.

      VRTX is news driven... and professional money is what counts. These folks will not be swayed by anything less than hard SVR data.

      We all have opnions and we have read what the experts have to say... and I have talked to a few. In the end what counts is SVR.

    • I do not own this stock, does anyone know how I can buy some shares of VRTX before the market opens in the morning. The news today is very significant in terms of value to this company. After speaking to a research Scientist friend of mine tonight, he told me that this is a potential Billion dollar drug in the US alone, and given the safety record, it will be the preffered treatment when approved.
      This company caught my interest when I noticed a news flash tonight on Larry King Live. The news was about the positive data reported today. This type of news is not normally featured on daily news shows, so I believe this type of coverage speaks volume to the impact of this potential blockbuster drug.

      Best wishes to all the longs for a great day tomorrow.

    • Your welcome. I think a question I would like to know, is, when will they stop dosing with SOC in the last 1b, and also the 2? I don't know what conclusions can be made after it is all done, because 950 was only the first part, but I would still like to know.

    • I should add, that to prove my point, look at patient 12. He went to <10 right at the end of 28 days, they took him off of 950, and it came back while on SOC. That means he needed 950 longer, because there were less than 10 virons PER MILILETER in his blood. Keep in mind how many milileters of blood are in the human body.

    • Dew, you misunderstood him. He asked about the 28 day trial that completed earlier. The answer is what I provided, I have talked to the company, I am sorry, it is what it is.

      VRTX has also said that if it takes longer than 3 months, they want to find out now. They can only dose it for 3 months as of now. They want to see if there is a different SVR rate, they have said this. It has been talked about. Various arms are used to gather as much info as you can. to say that 950 isn't needed when you get to <10, but SOC is, is just patently wrong.

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