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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • emserm emserm Oct 29, 2006 5:37 PM Flag

    Short Report

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) announced third-quarter results late yesterday, showing a net loss on a GAAP basis of $51.8 million, or 46 cents per share. For the same period last year, the net loss was $79.6 million, or 84 cents per share.

    The stock gapped sharply higher this morning, to levels it last visited in March. At last check, it was up almost 16 percent at $40.00. The firm is active in the options pits, and the underlying stock currently ranks Number Three on the list of gainers at the Nasdaq. There seems to be plenty to fuel the advances. For example, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for the stock is higher than 90 percent of those taken during the past year. This extreme pessimism suggests that money has remained on the sidelines, and may now be drawn in. More than 6.6 percent of the stock's float is sold short, and these pessimistic equities players are hurting today. They face a simple choice; either they hold out and hope that the price falls back, or they bail out and take the loss. Bailing out, of course, involves buying, which would elevate the price further unless a bunch of willing sellers were to step in at the same time. One concern I have is that Wall Street is already bullish on the stock, leaving little room for upgrade, which might draw in fresh money. Zacks lists 18 covering analysts, with seven "strong buy" ratings and four "buys." There are no "sell" ratings at all, though seven cautious "holds" allow some room for upgrade.

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    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) announced third-quarter results late yesterday, showing a net loss on a GAAP basis of $51.8 million, or 46 cents per share. For the same period last year, the net loss was $79.6 million, or 84 cents per share.

      The stock gapped sharply higher this morning, to levels it last visited in March. At last check, it was up almost 16 percent at $40.00. The firm is active in the options pits, and the underlying stock currently ranks Number Three on the list of gainers at the Nasdaq. There seems to be plenty to fuel the advances. For example, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for the stock is higher than 90 percent of those taken during the past year. This extreme pessimism suggests that money has remained on the sidelines, and may now be drawn in. More than 6.6 percent of the stock's float is sold short, and these pessimistic equities players are hurting today. They face a simple choice; either they hold out and hope that the price falls back, or they bail out and take the loss. Bailing out, of course, involves buying, which would elevate the price further unless a bunch of willing sellers were to step in at the same time. One concern I have is that Wall Street is already bullish on the stock, leaving little room for upgrade, which might draw in fresh money. Zacks lists 18 covering analysts, with seven "strong buy" ratings and four "buys." There are no "sell" ratings at all, though seven cautious "holds" allow some room for upgrade.

    • Ow, ow, pirate; not yet!

    • just wait until 42 US$ to be on the safe side before you cover....

    • Yes, that happened on Friday but no follow-through today. And it's still down! If it closes above yesterday's close, it might be something worth looking at exiting short positions...

    • after the AASLD in Boston on Wednesday we will see more buying coming and we will close the week above 45 US$. Just keep on holding your shorts...

    • how are the shorts doing?

    • Im short and am not covering.

      The reason is plain and simple. The product that they are pitching doesnt cure the illness. I will never short something that is fundamentally sound product, such as gardasil of Merck or the first cannibnoid receptor of sanofi,

      but another expensive protease inhibitor ( there are at the last count 6 that are approved by FDA ) for an indolent disease for those that cant afford it and not covered by federal funding unlike AIDS, no chance!!.

      So you can try and scare us about the mechanics of the market but we are patient and will wait for it to tumble. All those shorts sitting out there are not wistfull speculators but careful and patient bunch, it is the longs that fell for the hype and got on the ride.


      good luck

      • 2 Replies to zen_doc49
      • Boy, talk about ignoring facts. Insurance covers current therapy, and it doesn't even work well!
        And, you need to educate yourself. HCV is curable, HIV is not. HIV writes itself into the DNA, which HCV does not. Oh yeah, and so far, 5 out of 6 appear to be cured, as they have no traces of virus 3 months after treatment. If treatment doesn't work, you tend to see it in the first few weeks.

        A note to longs:
        When shorts, who talk like they have a clue about the fundamentals, but clearly do not, come on board, it usually means our stock just went up. And, we have seen over the years they will say anything, even if false, to push their agenda.

      • SHORT Sellers recently opened almost 2 Million new SHORTS and Sellers continue to compete and inch down the price in order to Sell. At this point, the demand to buy is non-existent compared with Friday's action. And with 14 million shares bought on Friday, who is gonna buy at higher than 16% price jump? Each rise will easily be sold with a fury as profit takers will quickly "cash out" and "sell the news".

        That's what it looks like right now. Let's see if the market tells us differently.

    • Did ya see the volume on april 40 puts 24,242,465

      I don't think I have ever see that many before.


      EOM

    • Nice try, but the money will go into puts this next week. Watch the volume of puts to calls.

 
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