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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Feb 2, 2007 1:50 PM Flag

    vx950

    You can do an order-of-magnitude calculation.
    Assume the cost of treatment is $10K, the number of cases treated per year is 40K (40% of the market). If you multiply, you get annual rev of 4E8 (400 million). If you add chronic patients who want to be treated, but not w/o 950, it will more than double the number of cases ==> > 1E9. After expense is deducted from the revenue, the net earning would be in the neighborhood of 0.5E9. Divide this by 130E6(# of shares). The company can claim approximately $3+ per share for annual earnings. Multiply by PE of 35 (deep pipeline). What do you get? Overseas sales would be greater than that in this country. Royalties from the sales would add to the net earnings.

 
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