Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:VRTX - News)
Although this firm has several products in development--as well as a history of generating successful HIV therapeutics--all eyes are focused on the potential of telaprevir (VX-950) to treat patients with hepatitis C. The drug candidate has shown impressive efficacy to date, and while shares fallen from their peaks due to concerns over the drug's side effects, we think its efficacy and market position outweigh any safety problems that have arisen to date. As I discuss in the valuation section of my Analyst Report, I've assigned VX-950 a 60% probability of approval in 2009, and "we still believe that the drug will garner 30% of hepatitis C drug sales by 2015, and that the global market could be larger than $10 billion by that time."
Well VRTX has strong pipeline that can turn into mega blockbuster.
U.S. Arthritis Numbers, Costs Soaring
Well how will buyer acquire? A tender offer will acquire all the outstanding shares.
Do your dd.
True on that. hope for 50 at this point, maybe 60-65 when stock price moves and safety profile is in better focus for teleprevir. Any buyer is just looking for teleprevir, the rest is just gravy. Its the blockbuster theyre paying for.
Amgn is a horrible comparison, a better comparison is CELG. Strong pipeline, simliar rev growth. That said, CELG is a 22B co AFTER a hugely successful product launch, and they are where VRTX HOPES to be in about 2012-2013. So, take that discounted about 5-6 years back at 20% due to some pretty high risk in VRTX, and youre looking at about a 7-8B dollar cap being reasonable. DOnt compare this to AMGN, look at companies further along the same curve, but not THAT far along the curve. AMGN is closer to a LLY or NVS now than it is a VRTX.
<Here is why big pharma will buy sooner than later. Simple reason is flashing $$$$$ sign every one sees in vrtx..>
what does this mean??
what is the mechanics of the buyout...how will it happen?
lets make it simple for you...
how will the buyer acquire the 95% of shares held
by institutions for a buy?
Here is why big pharma will buy sooner than later. Simple reason is flashing $$$$$ sign every one sees in vrtx..
There are also about 400,000 chronic hepatitis C patients in the U.S. who have failed current treatment and are waiting for new, more effective drugs to try. These patients represent a huge potential windfall for the first drug company to make it to market with a new hepatitis C drug.
In Europe, the exact number of hepatitis C patients is less clear, but I've seen reports with estimates of between 5 million and 10 million infections, although the number of diagnosed patients is lower. Of course, the disease is also a big problem in Asia.
it's not hard to get to the $5 billion to $10 billion market size estimates for hepatitis C. The wide range is attributable, in part, to the fact that we don't know what pricing for new drugs will look like, nor do we know yet how these new drugs will be used. But still, $5 billion to $10 billion is very big, so no wonder there is so much interest in hepatitis C stocks.
Do your dd.