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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • smcken08 smcken08 Jun 6, 2007 2:20 PM Flag

    Fall unnecessary

    My opinion is that this fall while most likely due to inflation worries is a bit excessive. This is a stock that trades on hope of approval of VX-950. If that apporval occurs, it won't matter what the economy is like people who need the drug will buy it and insurance companies will pay to provide it.

    Any other opinions.

    Also is there a good site to see what institutional investors are doing regarding the stock?

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    • According to the last Bear Stearns Presenatation they will likley be no news until Nov 2nd at the Barcelona Conference. That means that the stock will likley not go anywhere. On the other hand the meeting with the FDA around the corner could change everything again and we could see a big move (either way?). Seems 950 is on track with there Trials and no bad news are out either.

      Maybe one of the Big Pharma Companies might have a look and will try to take it over. This stock is almost impossible to time. Good Luck everybody...

    • I would buy VX-950 tomorrow if it were available and will when it is. IBD has charts with the number of mutual funds in a stock.Stock has a big double top at 45 and support around 27. Should move when Phase 3 gets announced and then when it finishes. European approval would be a big plus

      • 1 Reply to xhrles
      • Spent some time with specialist last week in Seattle, He's the head of the infectious disease clinic within the University of Washington. Stuck a 5 inch needle in my liver and sucked out a biopsy, says I am almost stage 3, which is not really great, but even he wants me to wait for VX950, which now is called teleprevir and in commercial production.

        He figures fast-track this summer with a little luck and final approval by late 2009, so this stock is what you would have to call a very long long hold. Actually, in Hep C time, which is where the money is going to come from, there are about a half a million of us figuring that two more years is a piece of cake. My insurance company will pay whatever Vertex is charging and be happy to do it. Much cheaper than a liver transplant.

        So bite me, bop. And xharles, you and I will be the first in line for Teleprevir, mixed with a little SOC. Tough to take, but worth everything and anything it takes.

        "I'm not IN the business. I AM the business."

    • Also, as with a rate increase if it happens, R&D costs and borrowing costs shall rise. But can anyone explain how much R&D costs the company still has to occur, I feel as if most of the money has been spent to develop the drug and now its just trial phases which I wish someone could explain how much that costs in relation to development. THanks.

      • 1 Reply to smcken08
      • Expenses related to running clinical trials are huge. The total expense including R&D reached 430 million last year. But at the end of last year VRTX had 770 m liquid assets (check this figure). Obviously, it is important to bring the drug to the market as soon as possible in Europe. There will be milestone payment from J&J. Read the following from last year's contract with J&J.:
        Key Financial Terms:

        Upfront and milestones: Vertex expects to receive a total of $545 million in payments, including an upfront payment of $165 million upon signing the contract, and a further $380 million in additional contingent milestone payments based on the successful development and approval of VX-950, and launch in the regions where Janssen Pharmaceutica has commercial rights.
        Royalties: a tiered royalty averaging a mid-20 percent range of net sales in Janssen�s regions and contingent upon successful commercialization. In addition, Janssen will be responsible for certain third party royalties in its regions.
        Drug development costs: reimbursement of 50 percent of drug development costs incurred by Vertex.
        Commercial supply responsibilities: Vertex and Janssen will be responsible for drug supply in their respective territories.
        Mitsubishi Pharma holds development and commercial rights to VX-950 in Japan and certain Far East countries, and is expected to commence clinical development in its territories in the second half of 2006.
        Ph III trials should be run in a semi-individualized system, if the FDA allows it. Geno 1 patients who show persistent early response should stop with 12+12 schedule (I speculate a majority belongs to this group), but patients who show slow response have to receive 12+36 or longer schedule. This will take the entire year of 2008.

        A bright spot: Note that PROVE 2 running in Europe does not have the 12+36 wk arm. Europeans and others respond well to SOC while Black and Hispanic Americans don't. I suspect triplet combo 12+12 arm of PROVE 2 may also show higher SVR rate than PROVE 1(95% of Black patients belongs to geno 1 while only 70% of white patients does, and the SVR rate from SOC is only 19%). On the other hand, because SOC alone gives 54% SVR rate for the white geno 1 patients, PROVE 2 trial has a higher bar to clear. However, the advantage of 12+12 regimen over SOC is about 40% at the end of treatment (85% vs. 43%, including dropouts), this benefit will be maintained in a longer trials such as in the 12+36 regimen. In any case the Street has very low expectations now, and that disconnection will power this stock higher when the data are released.

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