If Vx 950 and Vx 770 are both in the market over next 1 year and if Vx 509 phase II is positive, it is very likely that VRTX will cross this target of $93.11 in the next 12 months.
This is my target and I am a chicken without head, I admit.
The issue of whether Vertex is unproductive and the issue of whether they need to recoup the $5 billion dollars invested to yield an adequate return are 2 separate issues.
As far as measuring productivity, the $5 billion is relevant.
As far as measuring return on the stock going forward, the $5 billion is a sunk cost and is irrelevant. As of today, only future cashflows are relevant (and of course beginning net cash).
I'm sure thousands of investors have come and gone with Vertex over the past 20+ years and many have lost a pile of money. But there is no reason that Vertex needs to pay back or make back the $5 billion you say has been invested in the company over the years. In fact, Vertex's balance sheet is looking great with more cash and assets on its books than liabilities (debt). And that will only get better as more revenue and profits roll in from Incivek and, soon, Kalydeco. Given the number of drugs Vertex is currently developing, I'm not surprised with its huge outlay for R&D. They are doing the right thing by plowing the profits back into the company. Share buybacks and dividends would be a bad sign.
No reason to beat yourself up. None of us knew anything about Nucs. Peter Mueller (VRTX chief science officer) though should have known about it way back (it was his job) and gotten VRTX scientists involved in covering all the basis by developing Nucs in house.
Instead they waited until it was too late and then they partnered with Alios which mean VRTX has to share any profits with them if and when their Nucs are successful.
IMHO, the BOD should fire Mueller for sleeping on the job!!
just do a lil numbers cruncing and listen to ceo. you will see how the price should be at least 90 pps some time this year with much upside from todays price.
12 and 13 should be act 2 and 3. i expect prices to accelerate with decent pipeline in the works.