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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • gladpick gladpick May 16, 2011 3:51 PM Flag

    Beaware of DISGUISED SHORTS

    Lots of them have recently invaded this board. Many of them and their bosses are scared about VRTX's possible upside when FDA approves incivek and also with the constant release of good news about CF.

    It is a tactic used by hedge funds and investment houses. They disguise themselves as longs to deceive longs, by giving a buy or strong buy as their sentiment and they do not say childish things such as "SELL THIS POS" or "SELL THIS PIG", etc.

    They skillfully ask questions like "this stock has gone up a lot, how much more upside do thing it has?" Or "this stock has gone up a lot -- I am really scared", etc. etc.

    It is amazing how desparate some people are to post crap like that so they can get paid a few bucks for each post.

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    • I don't know what Dr. Beall is looking at but the prevailing data has the drug working for CF patients with a particular gene, or just about 4% of the 30,000 in the U.S. That's only 1,200 patient domestically. As for the cost of treatment, I'm not sure I would gamble a ton of money on some analyst's pie-in-the-sky estimate. And even if $200k, I very seriously doubt the Europeans are going to pay that to treat each patient.

      As for VX-222, I'm not saying VRTX is not going to remain a major player in the HCV market. I am saying there are probably going to be lots of players, sharing a market that could shrink in absolute dollar size because prices will drop.

    • You have a lot to learn about HCV and CF drugs. Vertex has a polymerase inhibitor called VX-222. When 222 was combined with triple combo, no viral breakthrough was observed and at the end of dosing the UND rate was 90%. It is most likely that the SVR rate from this quad therapy would be about 90%.

      According to the president of CF Foundation, Dr. Beall, VX-770 would be beneficial to as many as 20% of CF patients. The number of patients in the US and Europe which does not include Eastern Europe is about 60,000. So, more than 10,000 CF patients would benefit from 770 within a year or two. You should also know that a JP Morgan analyst thinks that the minimum cost for 1 year treatment would be 200K. This means that the 770 market could be as much as 2B a year, and the number of patients can only increase in the future because they would live longer (they may double the current 37 year lifespan).

    • biggest_clitoris_in_iowa biggest_clitoris_in_iowa May 17, 2011 3:50 PM Flag

      g, gladpick is a confirmed idiot. dont waste any more fo your time on him.

    • I am always appreciative of good info. Please email it to gladpick at yahoo. BTW take a look at NKTR.

    • I've followed the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors for more than 20 years and I know painfully well that it's important to look at least two or three years into the future when buying/holding a stock. Forest Labs stock fell well before patents on its antidepressant and alzheimer's drugs expired, because the company wasn't prepared to replace them. Pfizer stock has been a loser for years because Lipitor, with its roughly $13 billion in annual sales, goes off patent soon. Lilly has a similar problem.

      As noted previously, there are two dozen or so hepatitis C products in late-stage clinical trials, including some that don't need to be taken with the current SOC (standard of care) drugs, interferon and virazole. When some of these drugs hit the market, in two or three years, what does Vertex have to support its own HCV drug, which will undoubtedly see its sales erode??? The cystic fibrosis drug will help, but its potential is limited. I don't recall the precise figures, but the prevailing data suggests that the target market is little more than a few thousand patients, growing at a tiny rate every year.

      I made some money many years ago on a company named ICN pharm., which developed Virazole. I also bought Vrtx many years ago in the low 30s. At the current price, the risk reward picture for VRTX is not great.

      http://3DimensionalResearch.com issued a very detailed objective research report on Vertex a few months ago. I'll be happy to email to you if you're interested.

    • g_noh,

      "I'm not sure why we're bickering about the word "possible." I think we both have way too much time on our hands."

      I agree with you on the above so enough about who said what.

      As to the rest of your post, I also agree with some, not all of what you said. However, I can not say that you are wrong about things that I do not agree with. All of what you said could be possible.

      BTW, my original post about disguised shorts was not directed at you at all, but directed at those who had nothing to contribute to the discussions with well reasoned thoughts and info.

      As far as some of the big issues, such as will pps go up when FDA annouces the approval -- I do not know, it is possible. But as either you or someone else said, it may even go down due to profit taking. Who knows-- I certainly can't.

      I am invested in VRTX for the long term due to its science and believe those who take a position, short or long for a short term gain, will have a difficult time making any money in this particular stock. Have a good day.

    • biggest_clitoris_in_iowa biggest_clitoris_in_iowa May 17, 2011 1:43 PM Flag

      only LOSERS talk constantly about shorts.

    • Gladpick, are you as stupid as you sound? You cant possiby be.

    • Hyping or trashing a stock on this message board may be significant for a microcap. VRTX has a market cap of over $10 billion, so this board is virtually irrelevant.

      I must say it never ceases to amaze me how sensitive some people on these boards are to questions about a company in which he or she may have stock. One would think you would want as much information as possible, both positive and negative so that you could make an informed, objective decision.

      Then again, your comment that some critics are scared about VRTX's possible upside when the FDA approves incivek tells me that you're a novice investor. If you had any experience, you would know that the current stock price already discounts FDA approval. Considering the advisory panel's overwhelmingly positive recommendation and the fda staff's own statements, approval is all but a given.

      In fact, history tells us that the stock will actually drop after the expectation is realized.

      I have bought and sold this stock for many years. I've never been short, though.

      • 4 Replies to g_noh
      • "Then again, your comment that some critics are scared about VRTX's possible upside when the FDA approves incivek tells me that you're a novice investor. If you had any experience, you would know that the current stock price already discounts FDA approval. Considering the advisory panel's overwhelmingly positive recommendation and the fda staff's own statements, approval is all but a given."
        --------------------------------------------------
        First of all I said "POSSIBLE" upside which in the English language it means it may or may not happen!!!

        Second of all what makes you so sure that a possible approval may not cause a pps appreciation? You sound so sure it will not. How can anyone, including the smartest gurus on wall street, predict with the type of definitive statement you made the price movement of a stock when a possible news will be announced?

        Oh, excuse me you have special psychic powers to predict share price movements well in advance of a news. Not...

        For your information son, I am not a novice as you indicated. I have been an investor for a long long time, maybe even before you were born, (how about mid seventies)and posted on this board as well as several other boards since message boards were established. And you? You just appeared on this board several days ago. Why? Don't bother to answer. Long time posters here already have the answer. Have a good day.

      • I think what Glad is talking about is the recent upsurge in never-before-seen people who have crawled out from under their rocks and bridges to take a dump on the board and then vanish, only to reappear under a different name.

        If you have something substantive to say, we're all ears. If you simply want to stink up the place or pick a fight, please feel free to bugger off.

        This is not directed toward you, g-noh; you make some very good points.

      • Finally a response from someone who knows what they are talking about.

      • good possibility that can happen..

        but this one can be brutal stock either way

        i would dare to bet aganst the odd on thi9s one,,

 
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