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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • qdelfan qdelfan May 24, 2011 1:19 AM Flag

    What's next?

    So with the Incivek pricing announced today, the following catalysts are likely in the near term:

    1. New analyst VRTX stock price targets based on known cost per patient, and the anticipated payor mix. (With the $49,200 retail price significantly higher than most of the analysts' predictions).

    2. Possible inclusion in the S&P 500, given the turn to positive cash flow with an approved blockbuster drug on the market, and a market cap likely heading in excess of $12 billion this week. (Leading to mandatory stock index fund purchasing, as well as increased participation in purchases by most large cap growth fund portfolios.)

    3. Proof of concept interim clinical trial data from VX 809 with VX 770 before June 30. (Possibly released at the European CF meeting June 8-12.) If positive, this will potentially increase the treatable CF population with the two drugs from Vertex ten fold, with a corresponding potential increase in revenue from CF drugs alone. These drugs would likely be used for the entire life of each patient treated, with a significant increase in quality as well as length of life anticipated.

    4. Initiation of VX 770 clincial trials as monotherapy in other mutations with CFTR in adequate amounts on the cell surface. (With a potential for a three fold increase in the number of CF patients who could be treated with VX 770 alone.)

    5. Announcement of the filing of the NDA for VX 770 for treatment of CF in the G551D mutation.

    6. Early Incivek sales figures for the month of June, reported in the second quarter financials demonstrating the pent up demand for telaprevir versus boceprevir.

    7. Announcement of the approval of Incivek for sale in the EU. (And the potential royalties anticipated from Tibotec/JNJ)

    8. More Vertex buyout speculation by pundits and analysts as the potential for the Vertex drug pipeline, and the sales of Incivek become more visible.

    Enjoy the ride!

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