Look at the volume...."they" are snatching this up. As you can see, I do not discuss my position or pump the stock one way or the other. Most intelligent investors keep quiet...which is what I will do from here on.
My personal opinion is that nobody would like to buy Vertex now. Incivek will have relatively good sales for only 3-4 years. Ivacaftor (VX-770) is good, but the population is too small. No other drugs will be in Phase 3 in the next 1 year.
Who would pay 15B to buy Vertex now?
I would agree with AJ. Moreover, I think the real sweet spot for bio buyouts is for companies with market caps ranging from about $500 million to $3 billion. Beyond that, the deals seem to be few and far between. GENZ is one exception, for instance, but its price had been seriously depressed due to manufacturing problems prior to the takeover offer. If you want to bet on a buyout, I would, personally, look elsewhere.
$15 billion sounds a bit rich to me, considering how other market-leading biotechs are priced. To cite just one example, CELG has a market cap of $29 billion. But it also has about $4 billion in annual sales and more than 30 phase III trials currently underway for various indications. Why would VRTX be worth 58% as much as CELG?