In the Baird conference, the CEO stated that, 70% of the TRx is self referred.
That is where the analysts... almost every single one of them have fallen down.
Emotion is hard to 'calculate'. And there is generally no stronger emotion than the will to live.
Put it into perspective... Vertex could completely eliminate their sales force and they would still be beating Merck 3 to 1. Beating Merck, the marketing powerhouse who joined forces with Roche, another marketing powerhouse... against little tiny Vertex.
Yes there are serious competitive threats on the horizon. But if you have this disease... RIGHT NOW... and you have insurance or money RIGHT NOW... are you going to wait another four years... four years of liver damage that will impact you irregardless of cure later in life.... four years of being sick.... four years of popping pills... or are you going to take the shot to be free? Take the shot RIGHT NOW. And RIGHT NOW the Hep C answer is Vertex and will be for at least the next 3 to 4 years.
Not to mention that..... will the competition even succeed in 3-4 years? No matter how good a drug looks early means next to nothing. The junkyards are filled with fizzled out superstar drugs that couldn't make it to market for one reason or another.
It's nice to see the Vertex CEO speak so confidently, and publicly call down the obvious extreme negative views of this analyst, who has been totally wrong to date about Vertex commercial success, and who completely disregards the future potential of it's pipeline.