This statement by a low key person is highly significant. He commented again on the subject of this all-oral-triple in the Q&A session adding <don't forget (the fact)>. Without the safety-caused dropouts and viral breakthroughs I expect a gain of about 10% in the SVR rate (that is about the rate of discontinuation in IFN based triple). The probability of SVR for the two arms could reach the 80% range. But the most important gain in the all-oral DAA is that one does not have to deal with the compounded side effects the interferon brings in with the current triple. Patients suffer less with higher SVR rates. A truly amazing era is unfolding.
If the SVR rate from this all-oral combo is in the 80s, Vertex could add additional all-oral arms to the CONCISE study to accelerate the all-oral program. I think that even without Interferon a patient with the CC allele of IL28B will have a higher SVR rate. Then, we could see all-oral combo in 2014 ahead of anyone else.
I should add here that BI's all-oral PI+non-nuc-RBV combo had considerable breakthrough rates as reported by an AASLD abstract.
I think that both Tibotec/Medivir's PI and BI's PI will be approved by the FDA in 2014. But they won't be sold very much because all-oral drug combos just as effective will be out by 2015. Patients would delay their treatment until an all-oral drug comes out. This is why it is of utmost importance for Vertex to develop the combo Incivek/222/RBV by 2015.