Third, it was a darn good call regarding 3Q estimates by Brean Murray. But why, after downgrading Vertex 5/4/11 from a buy to a hold, have they not upgraded their opinion of the stock? Currently, their analyst (Skorney) has Vertex earning $5.64 for 2012 with a forward PE of 7.6. There is also no target price for Vertex listed by this analyst. It makes no sense whatsoever. This analyst who has such insight into this company should be pounding the table and telling everyone it is a SCREAMING BUY!
About two to three weeks ago BM had a target price of 53 and noted the value of VX-509. But, like the rest of analysts they think that the short term outlook depended on the trajectory of Incivek sales. Analysts' calls are often influenced by share price movements rather than the other way around. MB is still better than the average analyst in the field of hcv space.
No analyst talks about the commercial value of 809 or 661. It is perhaps too speculative for them to attach a value to them. But if you look at the data for the phase II trial for 809+770 to be presented at the Anaheim meeting, there appears to be a small effect on FEV1 improvement. Because the measurement of FEV1 depends on the compliance of patients to the measurement procedure, the signal can be easily washed away by the noise. With the newly improved trial design(see Verity's post) with a larger patient pool we should see a good signal this time.