You had better revisit the results of vx-222. Here is a hint(viral reduction load after 3 days of treatment!!!!!!!!!!) i can't wait to see results of vx-222/teleprevir/ribavarin. one more thing vrus results will take a huge hit once they try to treat genotype 1. good luck gilead i'll see you at the finish line look for vrtx they'll will be the ones holding the trophy.
Well all they did was have the most successful drug launch of all time. The markets are a skittish fickle thing. VRTX management is focused on real products and real earnings. Short term wonders like VRUS are great if you can time them right for sure. But I am very interested to see how that end game plays out. My guess is that it is overhyped and the results of 7977 will be significantly less than the hype at the end of the day, and that GILD is going to take an 11 billion dollar bath. We'll see.
Good point. The VX-950/PEG/RIB triple combo for 12/24 is showing amazing results. They are getting 2-log drops in viral load after 4 weeks for 89% of patients. The rest of the therapy is really "insurance", if you will (pick up random particles, mop up), so basically the VRTX therapy is in reality a 12-week therapy already (the other 12 are the insurance).
Now they are doing the quadruple VX-222/VX-950/PEG/RIB for 12 weeks in clinical trials as we speak. I am not a researcher, but I can't believe they are not going to report spectacular results.
VRUS makes a big deal about the shots/PEG. Well, with 12 weeks of therapy, the person is only taking 12 shots total, which is 1/4 of previous. Compared to being a diabetic, that's kid's stuff in terms of number of shots.
"Now they are doing the quadruple VX-222/VX-950/PEG/RIB for 12 weeks in clinical trials as we speak. I am not a researcher, but I can't believe they are not going to report spectacular results. " --------------------------------------- The market and analysts are not giving a hoot about shorter duration therapy if it involves Interferon. During the confernce call there were several questions from analyst as to why VRTX was perssuing more interferon based phase 3's in light of the new development in the all oral regimen. Analysts and investors are looking for an all oral regimen and VRTX unfortunately IMO is sticking to its old plan of spending lots of money and time to the old regimen for shorter duration treatment rather than re-appraising its old plan in light of all the new developmwents in the all oral arena. Keep in mind that during the recent conference calls Ian Smith implied that due to the recent developments with the all orals, when they would go back to Boston they would look at the situation and see if they would need to modify any previous plans.
Well they have been in Boston for a week and they have not announced anything yet. I figured with the continued plunge in PPS during the last week, by today they will make an announcement.
Meanwhile the competition is getting way ahead of VRTX with their oral trials and if successful they will render VRTX as a "has been company." Right now investors consider VRTX the same as some of the other drug companies whose patents will expire in 2 or 3 years since they consider Incivek has only 2 or 3 years of productive life. As everyone knows such companies whose patents expire in 2 or 3 years have a PE of maybe 8 to 10. The question then is what is the value of the pipeline? Unfortunately,the CF franchise was dealt a blow a few days ago when apparently the CF Foundation decided to turn to genzyme for apparently what they consider a better progress to help the majority of CF patients than VRTX has achieved so far. My take is that the reason they turned to GENZ is because they may be unhappy with VRTX's success to only help a very small % of these patients so far. Then there is the other major drug, for Arthritis. It seems to me in that area there are going to be lots of competition. There are already some drugs in the market and several other companies are working on better drugs. The market right now does not seem to want to give a lot of credit for a drug that is not near the market.
So where would that lead us? I as a shreholder have been supportive of VRTX management up to now, but unless they get off of their A**es and respond to the markets and drastically change course I am afraid my love affair will end soon. In short there has been enough bleeding and the mangement better respond.