I appreciate the postings contained under the "Incivek Prescriptions" thread that contains weekly updates on script trends. However, I don't know how to translate that info (and how physicians generally write for a script ) into estimates about how much revenue Incivek sales generated for Q4. Curious mainly to gain a sense of where revenues may come in vis a vis consensus street estimates. Thanks in advance to those who may shed light on this topic.
Disclosure: I am long VRTX and a long-time biotech individual investor
Two things give me optimism about Q4 earnings. First, I believe the "anchoring effect" will hold sway. Psychology research has shown clearly that when people are grossly off-target with their estimates (think Q3 street estimates), they are slow to revise their estimates in-line with the "objective" info given. Second, everything management has done (i.e., same time of CC - Thursday after market close - and their comments during JP Morgan) give me confidence that the "roll-out" of Incivek continues to be impressive.
I found your comments about treatment interesting. I am no expert on HepC, but as a clinical psychologist I do have a few docs refer patients to me who they are considering for Interferon tx. The docs know that Interferon can cause depression, so they want to know if their patients are pre-disposed to depression or other related mental health issues. They don't ask me to evaluate if I think clients can "tolerate" the treatment in terms of the general noxiousness of the physical side effects. Of course, that doesn't shed light on what % of eligible patients are presenting for tx., but I agree that as the cure rate increases - and the treatment time decreases, patients should present for treatment in greater numbers.
Absolutely. I am sticking to my estimate. As I indicated, I could be off by a week and revenue could be $540 million from North America sales. So a high of $585 million, a low of $540 million, for an average of $562 million. Maybe I am being optimistic with $585 million, but I will be close. Incivek will be a cash cow for years to come. Patients with HCV will contInue to seek treatment in large numbers because the treatment is available and it works. Those that can not tolerate Interferon, will wait. They really do not have a choice. Most people do not find the sIde effects of Interferon to be so bad that they discontinue treatment. Doctors are not going tell treatment naive patients to wait years for interferon free drug combinations that may or may not work on GT 1, the hardest GT to cure. This disease kills. People want to be cured. Incivek treatment cures HCV. Sales in 2012 will be huge.
The Street estimates for Q4 revenue and EPS (and for FY2012) have been trending down. Are you still sticking with your projections?
Anyone else have data-based guesses on Q4 Incivek sales?
I try not to overestimate the intelligence of the Wall Street herd, lord knows they've missed by a mile on lots of things. Hard to believe that VRTX, which is going to be a cash cow for the forseeable future, is has performed so poorly of late.
Thanks, I appreciate the specifics - I didn't write down that info when I listened to the JP Morgan presentation. It does confirm though what management said during the JP talk that they con't to be on track to have Incivek be the fastest launch of all-time.
Here's hoping VRTX exceeds the street consensus estimates as you predict.
I based my calculations on the information given by management on the 10/28/11 3rd quarter conference call of revenue of $40 to $45 million a week in September/October and scripts totaling 17,000 for the first 5 months. At the JP Morgan conference 1/9/12, management stated scripts were at 25,000 (approximately 7 months). If at the end of October, which was 5 months after launch, scripts were 17,000 and 25,000 roughly 2 months later, then scripts for November and December were roughly 8,000 or 4,000 each of the 2 months. This is consistent with revenue of $45 million a week which equates to 918.37 scripts per week or 3980 scripts per month. I could be a week high depending upon the cut off date for the 25,000 script count or sales in October. In which case, my estimate would be $540 million in revenue for Incivek sales for North America. But I am going to stick with 13 weeks at $45 million a week or $585 million.
I use $49,000.00 x NRX to get an idea. ($49,000.00 is the cost of full treatment and NRX are new prescriptions. CEO said in a conference call that a very high percentage of patients are completing the entire regimen) Apparently the data isn't all that accurate. Also, it doesn't include the royalty revenue from Europe and Japan. does anyone have any guesses as to what that might be?
I am curious how you would account for tx occurring over 2 quarters? I've grappled with this myself. I assume the script isn't dispensed all at once. In otherwords the whole regimen isn't purchased all at one time. So the majority of the revenue from patients who began their tx at the end of a quarter may not be realized until the follwoing quarter.