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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Jan 25, 2012 10:25 PM Flag

    5 Big Drugs for 2012 at Barrons.com

    From the article regarding Kalydeco: "Sales could reach $1.3 billion by 2015 and $3 billion by 2020, says Bernstein Research analyst Geoffrey Porges."

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    • I cannot read the article at Barrons as I do not subscribe. Could please someone explain how Kalydeco, a drug that will be approved to treat about 3,000 CF patients can generate >$ 1 sales?

      I really don't get it ... even if the pricing is $200,000/year that will bring max of $600MM/year, assuming 3,000 patients. If the calculations for >$1B assume approval of a corrector, the situation is different, but there is still a long way and a long IF, to assume that vertex will ever get a corrector approved. So far the data on the correctors doesn't suggest sufficient clinical activity to have a medical benefit.

      Can anyone explain the numbers/calculations from Geoffrey Porges?

    • Let's assume that's correct ($3B by 2020).

      Look at ALXN for a moment. Market cap ~14B with 2012 sales estimate of ~1B. Amazing the value WS is putting on it as compared to VRTX.

      Doing some digging - the rationale seems to be steady sales growth for ALXN with a single drug (estimates at $3B by 2020).

      If VRTX can somehow get the Kaledyco point across to WS, added to it the current sales on Incivek and a strong pipeline, we should be able to expect huge valuation as well - or am I missing something?

    • Porges has been a Vertex bull, but he is underestimating the potential of the drug.

 
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