The $1.5 to $1.7 billion guidance for 2012 Incivek sales is probably too low. My guess is about $1.9 billion based upon roughly $450 million sales per quarter. The $456 million for Q4 should not have been a surprise, given the IMS data (as imperfect as it is) showing Incivek sales leveling off in the final quarter of 2012. I am pleased to see management lowering expectations for 2012 revenues. It is always better to under promise and over deliver. Avoiding the disappointment that comes with excessive expectations should help to stabilize the stock price and lead to a higher PE ratio down the road.
There are three data related events that could significantly impact the stock in the first half of the year. First, there is the data on the all-oral Incivek/VX-222/ribavirin study, then the Phase 1 Alios "nukes" data and, finally, the Kalydeco/VX-809 combo data in delta 508 patients. I think positive results from the Alios "nukes" will give the stock a bump but not very much because of all the other "nukes" already further along in development. But if either the Inivek/VX-222/ribavirin or the Kalydeco/VX-809 studies have positive results that lead to the announcement of a phase 3 trial, then there could be a huge move up in the stock price.