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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • fandl30 fandl30 Feb 6, 2012 10:51 PM Flag

    VRTX's all-oral best guesses

    Dear VRTX message board members,

    Like many of you, I am sitting on pins and needles dreaming about VRTX announcing their all-oral RVR/SVR-4 numbers. This is eerily similar to waiting for TVR approval last May. So I have been scouring over the clinical data trying to come up with a reasonable number for the all-oral RVR. Here is what I have:

    a). From PROVE-2, TVR + INF = 36% (12 weeks)
    b). From Zenith (previous all-oral), TVR + high dose 222 = 59% (4 weeks)
    c). TVR as SOC = ~75%

    So from this data, I deduce the following:

    1. RBV seems to be making a big difference as seen from a & c. So if we set 59% as the floor (b/c there has been no viral breakthrough and it shouldn't be worse with RBV), then we very well could see >70% RVR for TVR + 222 + RBV. I welcome the board's feedback on my logic.

    Thank you,
    Fandl30

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    • johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Feb 9, 2012 9:39 AM Flag

      I stated an observation with two clauses.

      Go to the dictionary and look up the word 'insult'.

      Than show how my observational statement by that definition was one... and clearly my comment was not.

      Therefore, I suggest you read carefully before responding again. My words were carefully selected when I wrote them... which is a very nice way of saying, "Don't make yourself look like an idiot that doesn't know how to read." < This probably IS an insult.

      Have a nice day. : )

    • And yet you follow with additional insults......

    • johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Feb 9, 2012 7:48 AM Flag

      You decry insults with your first clause, and then insult with your last.

    • You guys are hilarious. You dont make any points You just fling insults. If either of you think the PE is high but doesnt matter because earnings are just ramping up, you are wrong. With declining revenue that will be close to zero for telaprevir soon enough the current high PE may be as good as it gets. And if you think a PE in the hundreds is sustainable in the face of a negative earnings outlook, for which there is broad consensus, you are wrong again. Its hard to feel sorry for you guys losing money when you post pointless jibes . Am long ONXX and GILD. Happy with both. Thought I would check out what kind of investor would still be in VRTX in the face the PSI 7977 results and lame telap/222/rbv results. Now I know. Look at the data. Make a rational point. Or apologize to your mothers for losing the money they gave you.

    • This is the first and hopefully last time he has posted on the VRTX
      board. He seems to be an ONXX groupie who was probably asked to play somewhere else.

    • <<The P/E bounces around in the 250-300 range. Just look it up. What do you think it is???>>

      Now you are acting like a village idiot.
      Quit using Yahoo numbers brainlessly.
      The question is
      Do you understand what PE stands for in first place?
      Do you know how to calculate a simple PE and how to use it?
      Do you understand PE based on growth?
      Do you know the difference between medical companies and other sectors like tech and how to apply potential of growth and PE?
      Do you know why REGN and many other pharma companies trade at very high price (REGN is over $100) with negative income that produces infinity PE (Yahoo put it at N/A)?

      It is worthless to respond to you when you do not understand the basic about financials.

    • The P/E bounces around in the 250-300 range. Just look it up. What do you think it is???And I don't see any analysis from you, just incoherent knee jerk hostile responses to posts that don't agree with your view of VRTX. It is fun to see the passengers on HMS Vertanic debating whether that is really an iceberg ahead. Do me a favor and post some trial results that back up your idea of VRTX as having more than a briefly profitable future. Ultimately the market will decide what VRTX is worth. It already is. And it won't react favorably to the inevitably (and already)declining telaprevir sales. Doctors who sense their patients can wait for a short spell (12-24 months is very short in the natural history of patients with fibrosis stage 0-2, the great majority) for simpler, safer, shorter and more effective therapy. Just like they did when telaprevir was getting close.

    • More S&P research report:

      Our buy opinion reflects our view that VRTX's
      valuation remains attractive, despite recent
      volatility, amid declining INCIVEK trends and
      positive clinical news flow from potential HCV
      rivals. Despite maintaining a leading market
      share, we view VRTX's 2012 INCIVEK sales outlook
      as disappointing. However, we expect its
      cash flows to support sizable pipeline investments.
      We view positively the recent early FDA
      approval of Kalydeco, and we see potential for
      peak annual sales in excess of $1 billion if additional
      patient sub-group approvals are secured.

    • Read S&P recent report of VRTX(Feb 6). I put just one statement from that report.

      "At December 31, 2011, VRTX had $969 million in cash, which we view as sufficient
      to advance its diverse pipeline, ahead of
      expected hepatitis C competition as early as
      2014."

      1- For sure vrtx will advance its oral brand of hep c to compete.

      2- VRTX still will get a sizable revenue from INCEVEK if lowers the price in 214. It is a drug that works.

    • VRTX is not an HCV company, they are a company that has an HCV drug.

      The assumption on WS is that there will be declining sales in HCV through 2014, and then a quick drop to zero thereafter. Downside is already priced in (or out depending on the perspective). That is evidenced by the 100% data by GILD... not too long ago that would have caused a wild precipitous drop in VRTX pps, but now with the pessimism built in already, there was barely a reaction. Point me to an analyst, fund, or retail investor who is optimistic about VRTX and it's future in HCV beyond 2013 - don't think there are any.

      VRTX is a CF company in my opinion. Kalydeco will bring in 5 - 10X more in sales than Incivek over the life of the drug well into the 2020's. No matter what corrector (or what company) ultimately gets approved (and VRTX has multiple shots on goal - well ahead of competition), it will require Kalydeco in combination. And I have no doubt at all a corrector will ultimately get approval, as VX-809 has established proof of concept. No one to my knowledge is even getting into potentiator research... just corrector, and that's because of the slam dunk efficacy and safety of Kalydeco. Very high bar to meet.

      All that money will be funneled into the pipeline and future collaborations/mergers/acquisitions.

      VRTX has a very bright future. The difference between a VRTX and others is in their pipeline. You will never hear of these other rinky dink HCV companies in years time, but you will be seeing big sales from multiple drugs in multiple indications from VRTX in the future.

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VRTX
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