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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • med_investor med_investor Feb 14, 2012 1:23 AM Flag

    VX-222 / INCIVEK / ribavirin

    polymerase inhibitor VX-222 dosed in combination with INCIVEK and ribavirin is in phase 2 and results will be announced in Q1 2012 according to VRTX.

    If above combinatopn is successful then VRTX may get a strong ground against GILD or any other company in HCV.

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    • "If above combinatopn is successful then ..."

      Jeff Leiden in the last conference call implied the 3 combo oral may result in about 70 to 80% success rate.

      Unfortunately, most investors and analysts consider any new regimen that is not near 100% cure as not successful. The early announced results by VRUS and INHX have raised expectations to 100% cure and some analysts are even implying that VRUS (now GILD) has already accomplished that!

      So unfortunately I think we may be faced with another downside hit once the triad combo results are announced. For my sake and many longs on this board I hope not and hope that I am wrong.

      • 3 Replies to gladpick
      • I think Ribavirin need to be replaced by another drug with a known mechanism of action to avoid mutant and resistant strains of Hep C. No one knows how Riba works, error catastrophie at NS5B vs inositol monophoshate inhibition? VRTX combo may will face the same challange like PSI 7977, mutant HCV due to Phe-Tyr substitution emerge in NS5B. If VRTX can show better results in null group ( I don't know if they have any in E and F arms), we will be lucky and should be rewarded.

      • I think a 70-80% cure rate with VX-222/Incivek/ribavirin would be a significant achievement and would be received positively. Until an interferon free, nucleotide/nucleoside regimen can prove its efficacy and safety in a large scale (several hundred patients) study of genotype 1 HCV, the investors betting on these "nukes" are taking a huge risk. Judging from the prices paid for Pharmasset and Inhibitex, they are counting 100% efficacy and no serious side effects in genotype 1 HCV. I would not expect that level of success.

      • Yes I see most analysts have raised the bar for shorter time and 100% cure for all types of HCV.

        Possible to come down to lower prices and investors should be ready for it.

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