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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • med_investor med_investor Feb 14, 2012 1:23 AM Flag

    VX-222 / INCIVEK / ribavirin

    polymerase inhibitor VX-222 dosed in combination with INCIVEK and ribavirin is in phase 2 and results will be announced in Q1 2012 according to VRTX.

    If above combinatopn is successful then VRTX may get a strong ground against GILD or any other company in HCV.

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    • "If above combinatopn is successful then ..."

      Jeff Leiden in the last conference call implied the 3 combo oral may result in about 70 to 80% success rate.

      Unfortunately, most investors and analysts consider any new regimen that is not near 100% cure as not successful. The early announced results by VRUS and INHX have raised expectations to 100% cure and some analysts are even implying that VRUS (now GILD) has already accomplished that!

      So unfortunately I think we may be faced with another downside hit once the triad combo results are announced. For my sake and many longs on this board I hope not and hope that I am wrong.

      • 2 Replies to gladpick
      • I think a 70-80% cure rate with VX-222/Incivek/ribavirin would be a significant achievement and would be received positively. Until an interferon free, nucleotide/nucleoside regimen can prove its efficacy and safety in a large scale (several hundred patients) study of genotype 1 HCV, the investors betting on these "nukes" are taking a huge risk. Judging from the prices paid for Pharmasset and Inhibitex, they are counting 100% efficacy and no serious side effects in genotype 1 HCV. I would not expect that level of success.

      • Yes I see most analysts have raised the bar for shorter time and 100% cure for all types of HCV.

        Possible to come down to lower prices and investors should be ready for it.

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