Jeff Leiden in the last conference call implied the 3 combo oral may result in about 70 to 80% success rate.
Unfortunately, most investors and analysts consider any new regimen that is not near 100% cure as not successful. The early announced results by VRUS and INHX have raised expectations to 100% cure and some analysts are even implying that VRUS (now GILD) has already accomplished that!
So unfortunately I think we may be faced with another downside hit once the triad combo results are announced. For my sake and many longs on this board I hope not and hope that I am wrong.
I think a 70-80% cure rate with VX-222/Incivek/ribavirin would be a significant achievement and would be received positively. Until an interferon free, nucleotide/nucleoside regimen can prove its efficacy and safety in a large scale (several hundred patients) study of genotype 1 HCV, the investors betting on these "nukes" are taking a huge risk. Judging from the prices paid for Pharmasset and Inhibitex, they are counting 100% efficacy and no serious side effects in genotype 1 HCV. I would not expect that level of success.