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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • med_investor med_investor Feb 25, 2012 8:52 PM Flag

    VRTX price based on GILD standard

    GILD paid $11 B for Pharmassedt and its PSI-7977, a drug in phase 2.
    VRTX VX-222 has proven to be more effective and better than PSI-7977.

    1- Based on above, VRTX vx-222 should worth about $11 B or $52.38 per share.

    2- Now add $1 B for VRTX cash and share price becomes: $57.14

    3- Now add Incivek income for next 3 years before vx-222 takes over ($5 B) then share price becomes: $80.95

    4- Now add at least $3 B for CF pipeline and Kalideco and share price becomes $95.23.

    5- Now add at least $2 B for the rest of VRTX pipeline and PPS becomes $104.76.

    It is amazing that the share price is not even ½ of what it can be, not even $40.

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    • Breaking news check it out.

    • Actually, yes it is. Telaprevir is the generic name for Incivek. Same drug. Same compound. Same risk.

      More Drug-Drug interaction studies will identify if any of the various statins are safe to use w/ these HCV drugs. If not, and until then, patients will not be prescribed both at the same time. This doesn't help sales but it isn't going to cause them to fall off a cliff either.

    • <<Also, no where in your link is Incivek mentioned.>> You are right it does not specifically say "Incevik".

      It does say:
      "Protease inhibitors,(for HCV&HIV treatment), and statins taken together may raise the blood levels of statins and increase the risk for muscle injury (myopathy). The most serious form of myopathy, called rhabdomyolysis, can damage the kidneys and lead to kidney failure, which can be fatal"

      Incevik is a HCV "protease inhibitor". Therefore this link applys to Incevik and Incevik is directly effected by this FDA Safety Announcement, labeling changes and all. Get it?

      Do you have any idea how many Americans take statins. You probably don’t so I will tell you. One in four Americans, ages 45 and older, are taking a statin. There are roughly 127 million Americans over age 45. Presuming that there hasn’t been a big drop off in use since 2005-2008 (the latest period for the government health survey upon which these statistics are based) almost 32 million Americans take a statin. That’s the equivalent of the entire populations of Florida and Illinois combined. By now the number is much higher.

      I do not know exactly how this translates across the HCV population but needless to say there is a large significant percentage of HCV patients who may be excluded from treatment w/Incevik or any other protease inhibitors. This is just another reason for physicans & HCV patients not to use Incevik. Which means that income from Incevik will be less then expected. Get it? It's really not that difficult to figure out if you look at the facts with an open mind.

    • OK. I agree. The head line does fly in the face of the study recently released. It does confuse. We are contacting Decision Resources for a clarification. I will get back to the board with their response. But if their analysis proves to be reasonable then income from Incevik will decrease, and those dollars will go to Gild. IMHO 7977 will be part in the next approved SOC for HCV.

      And Invcevik has other problems:
      The FDA made a Safety Announcement on 3/01/2012 “HCV protease inhibitors” (Incevik) have been put on their safety watchlist. http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ucm293877.htm

      Also the increasing reports by patients of Incevik’s side effects continue to grow in a statistically significant number of patients. Some so severe that they have had to discontinue treatment. The whole point of eliminating interferon for new HCV treatment was to minimize side effects. Incevik is proving to have a higher side effect profile then compounds like 7977 which have no side effects. In studies to date, 7977 w/peg/rbv has proven to be more effective then Incevik w/peg/rbv, in gen 1 naïve patients. The treatment time is also shorter.

      VX-222 may be an important new substance in HCV treatment but 7977 has a head start and will be on the market long before VX-222. I think Incevik will fall to the wayside sooner than expected as patient wait for gentler more effective therapies.

    • Also, no where in your link is Incivek mentioned. If you actually read it, which I doubt you did, then you would know that the warning is for drug interactions and not the drugs alone. Lots of medications have negative interactions. You really don't have a clue.

    • Please explain how 7977 is more effective when their study was just released and proved that it was ineffective? Please tell us the relapse rate on 7977 so we all know how much GILD overpaid for VRUS? Please let us know while you're at what the results were for VRTX's 222 were? Please let us know, even if 7977 is approved, when the FDA would even vote on it. Please us know when VX-222 is due to be approved.

      I think your facts are a bit mixed up. When you have the answers to the above, maybe you will see the bigger picture.

    • OK. I agree. The head line does fly in the face of the study recently released. It does confuse. We are contacting Decision Resources for a clarification. I will get back to the board with their response. But if their analysis proves to be reasonable then income from Incevik will decrease, and those dollars will go to Gild. IMHO 7977 will be part in the next approved SOC for HCV.

      And Invcevik has other problems:
      The FDA made a Safety Announcement on 3/01/2012 “HCV protease inhibitors” (Incevik) have been put on their safety watchlist. http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ucm293877.htm

      Also the increasing reports by patients of Incevik’s side effects continue to grow in a statistically significant number of patients. Some so severe that they have had to discontinue treatment. The whole point of eliminating interferon for new HCV treatment was to minimize side effects. Incevik is proving to have a higher side effect profile then compounds like 7977 which have no side effects. In studies to date, 7977 w/peg/rbv has proven to be more effective then Incevik w/peg/rbv, in gen 1 naïve patients. The treatment time is also shorter.

      VX-222 may be an important new substance in HCV treatment but 7977 has a head start and will be on the market long before VX-222. I think Incevik will fall to the wayside sooner than expected as patient wait for gentler more effective therapies.

    • OK. I agree. The head line does fly in the face of the study recently released. It does confuse. We are contacting Decision Resources for a clarification. I will get back to the board with their response. But if their analysis proves to be reasonable then income from Incevik will decrease, and those dollars will go to Gild. IMHO 7977 will be part in the next approved SOC for HCV.

      And Invcevik has other problems:
      The FDA made a Safety Announcement on 3/01/2012 “HCV protease inhibitors” (Incevik) have been put on their safety watchlist. http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ucm293877.htm

      Also the increasing reports by patients of Incevik’s side effects continue to grow in a statistically significant number of patients. Some so severe that they have had to discontinue treatment. The whole point of eliminating interferon for new HCV treatment was to minimize side effects. Incevik is proving to have a higher side effect profile then compounds like 7977 which have no side effects. In studies to date, 7977 w/peg/rbv has proven to be more effective then Incevik w/peg/rbv, in gen 1 naïve patients. The treatment time is also shorter.

      VX-222 may be an important new substance in HCV treatment but 7977 has a head start and will be on the market long before VX-222. I think Incevik will fall to the wayside sooner than expected as patient wait for gentler more effective therapies.

    • The fact of the matter is that Vertex has been getting EXCELLENT results on their interferon free HCV trials. The company has not been saying much about it because it is still a few years away and more trials need to be done for dosage. I am a new investor with this company after the big drop. I have done my own research on this company. Yes, the company has been hammered after all the HCV companies are speculated to make Incivek obsolete. However, I believe management has been extremely conservative with their estimates on future Incivek sales. Did anyone hear the conference call? Sure, management did not raise guidance or revenues because it is still too early to tell how it will play out. But I am pretty confident that the numbers they gave were on the low end. Does anyone remember that Incivek is the fastest growing drug in sales to reach 1 billion? Vertex is not sitting idly waiting around for something better to come out. They are developing better HCV treatments to IMPROVE upon Incivek so they don't lose any market share. In fact, I think they will GAIN market share. I am pretty confident that their new HCV drug will be approved in 2014 so they will be even stronger in the market. Their CF drug Kalydeco is just the beginning in that market too. Getting approval as an Orphan Drug will help boost sales almost immediately as most CF patients know if they are candidates for treatment. Trials to expand to all CF patients has been underway. I am also pretty confident that they will get that approved as well. The only question is if their epilepsy, RA, and influenza drugs will get approved. That could be three more blockbuster drugs in a few years. If that's not something to be excited about, then I don't know what is. Let me also add that the company is in excellent financial condition as they are able to earn a profit while funding their R&D to keep the pipeline going. I would not be surprised to see Vertex bought out at some point as their pipeline gets closer to Phase III trials.

    • Your premise << VRTX VX-222 has proven to be more effective and better than PSI-7977>> is incorrect.
      Show me the data!

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