some of the other board regulars. What is your take about the various abstracts from other HCV biotechs. I wonder if some of vrtx old timers have reduced their shares or have gotten out all together because they have not seen any earth shattering info about vrtx lately?
It seems to me unless VRTX comes up soon with some good data about all orals for HCV, we may be going down considering the good data from ABT so far and who knows what about GILD.
I just don't think investors are going to bid up VRTX pps on a promise of better CF drugs down the line for the remaining 95%. They may want to see proof before they become bullish about VRTX's CF future drugs. All of this IMHO.
I'm still holding my shares. VRTX does not have much to be crowing about at EASL this year, but at this time, telaprevir based treatment remains the best option for most all GT 1 patients and will used by patients with advanced liver disease who cannot afford to wait to see which all oral regimens make it to market in the next few years.
Also, the Allios nucs data will be coming later this year, and AASLD will likely have data this fall demonstrating the potential for Vertex using all oral combinations that will likely me competitive with Abbot and Gilead's interim results being released this month.
More importantly, based on recent Vertex clinical data, the HIV coinfected GT 1 hep C population will likely use Vertex triple therapy exclusively for at least the next few years, and they number in the hundreds of thousands in this country alone. Hep C is the leading casue of death in the HIV population, and patients in this subgroup will not likely defer treatment given the risks of delaying their care.
Of course the rest of the Vertex pipeline will be creating a buzz about Vertex's future growth potential as clinical trial results on each drug are released this year, starting with CF combo trials with VX 809 and 770 this quarter, and perhaps interim results of VX 661 proof of concept trials in the fall.
Comments by enrolled CF patients on CF support group blogs report significant improvements in their FEV-l and sujectively feeling better after just a few weeks of treatment on these drugs. That's significant to me because similar posts were made by patients enrolled in the VX 770 monotherapy trials in prior years in the G551D mutations, and we all know how well that turned out for both CF patients and Vertex investors.
Hopefully, CF patients and their families will finally have effective treatment for the majority of cases. Their advocacy groups will likely be pushing hard to expedite FDA approval of these drugs after their efficacy has been demonstrated, because so many of the older CF patients have more advanced disease and their time to benefit from drugs like these that can potentially halt or at least slow the progression of their disease, and may make the difference in their survival over the next few years. For the younger CF patients it would mean hopefully preventing them from developing more serious lung damage and improve both the quality, productivity, and length of their lives. Vertex has a bright future ahead, factoring in these considerations, with the influeza, RA/autoimmune disease, and epilepsy drug development programs to further sustain the company's future growth. It's important for long term VRTX investors to have patience to reap the rewards coming in the future from this broad drug development pipeline.
Dear gladpick et al.,
As a long time VRTX holder, I am as frustrated as every fellow investor who rode the TVR NDA up and subsequently down on the 'potential' of other companies all oral treatments.
So ABT has great results GT-1 naive data. However, we have to remember it is a pretty small sample size so let's see if this repeats in larger trials. I don't recall if they are conducting a Phase 2B however. Also bear in mind it looks like a minimum of 4 compounds to take which is nothing to sneeze at.
As for 7977, I am suspicious about the upcoming data. A lot of noise has been made about it being embargoed yadda yadda. It probably won't be as bad as the nulls data, but I am not holding my breath for stellar results either.
So with ABT and BMS in the fold, one has to wonder what we can look forward to with VRTX's all-oral program.
Well, let's remember VRTX's all-oral results were 83%. Not blow the doors off exciting, but very good in its own right. If I remember correctly, the Phase 2B should be starting in 2012Q3. So the near term catalyst should be the Alios Phase I data. If VRTX plays things right, anything remotely positive from these trials should immediately be tried in whatever permutations with TVR and VX-222.
My impression of the HCV landscape is 2014 will be the year when we potentially see new drug approvals entering the market. That gives TVR a full 2 years of market 'exclusivity' (given Victrelis is on the market and potentially TMC435 coming soon).
And of course, VRTX has other compounds in the pipeline. Initiation of new trials will hopefully trigger increases in the stock price.
I agree re investors waiting for the "proof" for the CF drugs, which IMHO will be too later for them to get in the game. I am convinced Vertex is going to be there with 661 and possibly even 809 in the interim. I posted a few days ago some links/insights that I think show the potential for 770 beyond the gating mutations and I think this also bodes well for a "cure" for the other CFers so desparately waiting.
PS Thanks for your words on my behalf several months past.
We are in limbo for sure Verti!
The recent 809 & 770 leaks/blog postings have this CF-Dad's spinning; truthfully, I have not been able to think about much else since I read those blogs last week (which are down now?) and I bet I am not the only one to feel this way. I'm admittedly desperate for VRTX CF success.
Official and positive news about 809 should make VRTX stock take off - why wouldn't it, right? That said, if they kill 809, opting to only run with 770 (no matter the logic/good intentions), the stock may go down substantially as would a lot of hope.
Q) Are there cases when a company like Vertex can report clinical trial news sooner than an expected date?
Tick tick tick
Best to all...stay healthy.