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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • stockmantykus stockmantykus May 7, 2012 9:17 PM Flag

    Okay let's look at this logically.

    Let's assume this phase 2 trial equates to a successful phase 3 trial which it probably will. Let's assume financing works perfectly and they get the product out without a hitch.

    Now let's look at the market cap. Currently at 12 billion dollars. Many analysts are calling for 60-70 dollars while one is saying 100. At 100 the market cap will be around 22 billion dollars.

    There are 90,000 people in the WORLD with the type of fibrosis that can be treated by this new drug.

    Not a big market.

    So how is this justified exactly?

    Just my reasoning behind being short, I'd love to hear some logic besides insane people calling me a moron.

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    • I'll take this one. It's easy. Let's say the new combo drug regimen, Kalydeco/VX-809, can only successfully treat 50% 0f CF patients and let's use 70,000 for the number of CF patients in developed countries with the money to pay for the new medicines. So now we have 35,000 treatable patients. Now, say that only 20,000 of those patients actually are able to get treated and let's discount the price from the estimated $300,000 per patient per year to $200,000 per patient per year. Here's the math: 20,000 patients X $200,000 per patient per year = $4 billion each and every year!

    • Allow me to explain ... But first, I think you and everyone else shorting VRTX because it's up 50% are stupid. Stupid because you just asked a very stupid question yet you are short the stock.

      Yes, there may only be 90,000 patients ... but the treatments are close to $300,000 a year. And this drug will be taken over a lifespan, so it acts like an annuity. Given this alone could bring in 5-7 billion dollars annually, that alone warrants a substantially higher stock price. But what you shorts fail to realize is that VRTX is not a one trick pony .. they have a very healthy pipeline and already have a blockbuster Hep C drug on the mkt ...

      Will it go lower so you can cover for a gain? Maybe ... but please don't act like a $20 pt move isn't justified. You guys are lucky the mkt wasn't open another couple of hrs, we may have seen $63 ...

    • Logic? In this insane market? Since when did the market trade on logic? The trade is up, that's all that matters. Should of waited for $75 to $80 before starting a short postion.

 
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