It is surprising the expect just $1B of Inciveck sales in 2013 ... going down 30-50% from 2012 estimates ... that would be a short life for what it was assumed to be a mega-blockbuster!
From S&P report on 8/26
We forecast 2012 revenues of $1.66 billion, driven by $1.2 billion in sales of INCIVEK hepatitis C virus (HCV) drug and $185 million in initial sales of Kalydeco cystic fibrosis (CF) drug, following its February 2012 U.S. launch. We project 2013 revenues of $1.6 billion, including INCIVEK sales around $1.0 billion and Kalydeco sales of $325 million. We attribute INCIVEK sales peaking lower than initially projected to HCV patients awaiting new treatment options that seek to exclude interferon, which is part of INCIVEK's regimen.
We look for VRTX to incur R&D costs of around $800 million in 2012 and 2013, as it invests in pipeline programs focused on new regimens for HCV and CF. VRTX has also advanced candidates for rheumatoid arthritis and epilepsy through proof-of-concept studies, and we see potential for it to partner some of these programs or develop them internally.
We project adjusted EPS of $1.39 in 2012 and $1.21 in 2013. At June 30, 2012, VRTX had $1.2 billion of cash, which we view as sufficient to advance its diverse pipeline, ahead of expected HCV competition near mid-decade.