I calc it at 5-20% upside on day 1. 62 - 70.
Normal variables only include the data itself. 5 questions the analyst from Deutsche Bank has asked are the ones that need to be answered.
Abnormal variable would be VRTX's credibility after botched reporting of trial results last time. This could cap or delay a big bump.
Question #2 is the most important imo. If 809 is shown to have across the board efficacy with no major outliers, VRTX goes to new highs on Thursday. I believe that it will, the data appears to be that good.
Are your referring to Ph II 809/770 trial data? It depends on what you mean by [positive]. Vertex has already reported an early data in May, revised the data late May, and what it called the final results in late June. In what Vertex called the final data, they disclosed the quantitative changes in FEV1 and sweat chloride, resulting from 600mg VX-806 dosing and placebo only, but they did not give quantitative data resulting in the arms receiving 400mg and 200mg of 809.
It is very important to see the time course over 8 weeks for % FEV1 occurred in 400mg and 200mg dosing arms. I'll tell you why in detail after the data are out. But I'll tell you that the data can explain the time course of funny behavior of the FEV1 for the control group (=placebo receiving).
If the press release includes the reason why FEV1 decreased so much for the control arm over a mere 8 wk period, and it has the origin in the stopping of antibiotics for all arms, then the share price will see a new high.
I will be selling a few 100 shrs when Cramer crowd comes in to raise the shr price to above 62, but buy back all by Tuesday. If the Thursday's data are as comprehensive as I indicated earlier, I will be buying more.
If you are thinking about buying more, please buy in a few batches at a low of day.
thirdmeinvestor you sound very knowledgable, would you buy more here at $60? And take your chances? Or wait for more data to come out, if the data is good obviously you will have to pay more, but is it worth it to wait? or from what you know buy here? Thanks, and good stuff by the way.