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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • johns.patrick johns.patrick Oct 10, 2012 1:30 PM Flag

    todays action

    bets against positive report or is all bio down today, celgene down for no apparent reason

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    • johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Oct 10, 2012 1:58 PM Flag

      Bio index down 1.5%.

      This looks to me like a retraction of a trend that began on 7-31. The trends cycles are becoming quicker, an indication the trend is about to change. This 'change' I am eluding too does not mean down, up, or sideways... just 'change'.

      Looking at the 5 min chart, it shows that the last three days have had selling activity to around 11:00 a.m. pacific. The stock then begins a climb up for the remainder of the day. Margin calls typically occur at this time (11:00) to around noon.... so the stock is being sold short on margin (borrowed money) and then covered when they need to pay the money back.

      My thesis as of right now is that this last hour was the bottom of the day. And we are at the bottom of the trend channel... so change in trend... or a continuation of the trend and this goes up strongly to the $62.00 range just following the trend.

      Of course this is all speculation based on what I am observing... and that is the best really anyone can do.With tomorrow's catalyst... and the for certain negative SVR12 data on GS-7997 w/ Ribavarin I am most certainly a buyer at these levels.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to johnf50
      • Margin call reference is misplaced. Stock has not had sufficient volatility to generate any margin calls. One can either make or lose money in the stock, but that by itself would not create margin calls. A call that would be related to this stock would have to suddenly take the underlying equity in the overall account to under 35% in most brokerage firms. That degree of movement has been absent from the stock for quite a while.

 
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