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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • crossroads4040 crossroads4040 Oct 26, 2012 3:23 PM Flag

    Headline of the day

    Tuesday morning?

    Vertex stock decimated after beating on top and bottom line, providing positive Phase 2 data for vx-787. CEO Leiden takes nap on office couch!

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    • johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Oct 26, 2012 5:14 PM Flag

      Just my opinion... this is a classic walk down. Shares are shorted heavily for the first hour or two... than consolidation occurs for the rest of the day. This is about lowering the cost basis.

      This pattern repeats on the 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and the 26th. Granted, this is just my opinion, but it bares consideration with the almost systematic way it is happening.

      I am not saying this in a cavalier fashion either, I have a solid amount of capital invested in this stock and I am feeling a little pain here... in fact, I have a few lumps.... just recently, I bought 1,500 shares at $56... sold at $53 (took the hit)... bought back in at $50.

      Now consider what I just said with the most recent analyst upgrades:

      10-4 Argus @ $68.00
      10-9 Deutche Bank @ $77.00

      And of course - the yahoo data stating 21 analysts with a mean target of $68.80.

      Now that this stock is just a little over 10 billion in market cap... I think with the value of the pipeline *VX-222 (3 to 4 billion) *VX-787 (3 to 4 billion) *VX-509 (3 to 4 billion) and future Incivek sales forecasted and discounted (1 billion) - I think we have hit bottom.

      What is clearly not in the stock is *VX-135 (10 billion) *VX 809 / VX 661 (25 billion) which is why I believe this is a 40 to 50 billion dollar company and a ripe buyout candidate in the 20 to 30 billion dollar range. So I continue to stand by my personal price target of $90 to $135 per share, at which point, I will likely go short.

      Near term catalysts in my opinion include but are not limited too: detrimental GS-7997 data (it is going to happen); announcement of partnership on VX-135, greater than expected Kalydeco use, positive VX-787 data, and positive VX-509 data. I would not rule out a take out offer either.

      It is important at point like this to (a) have a price target you can justify (b) be willing to look at that price target and consider if you have been wrong and why.

      Personally, I think nothing is going to happen next week and that this stock is going to continue to run around the $50's until November.

      GLTA ~ JF

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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