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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • angina_invagina angina_invagina Oct 28, 2012 7:19 PM Flag


    Last November share price was 26.50 after liver conference and I expect to be lower than that, if GS 7977 data is positive.

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    • That 26.50 price was before approval of Kalydeco and before the excellent phase II results from VX-809/Kalydeco. After these positive developments, there is no way Vertex will revisit a share price of 26.50. However, it would not surprise me to see the share price drop in the near term because all the news in the next 1 to 2 months will be about hepatitis C. The revenue and earnings estimates by analysts for Incivek sales have dropped dramatically over the past 3 months so I believe much of the bad news regarding Vertex's Hepatitis C business has already been discounted. Even if GS 7977 has great data (and I believe it will not for genotype 1 HCV), it should not have much effect on Vertex's share price. Unfortunately, Merck's inferior drug, Victrellis, is probably continuing to take market share from Incivek and there are so many ongoing hepatitis C drug trials by multiple companies that I wonder how many paying patients there are left. The big liver meeting in November (AASLD) will feature a bunch competitors with promising new hepatits C drugs that might eventually replace the Incivek regimen as the standard of care. These headlines will be a negative for Vertex's share price given the short term focus of investors who fail to recognize that the future for Vertex will be built on its cystic fibrosis drugs and its pipeline of medicines for other diseases.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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