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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • qdelfan qdelfan Nov 2, 2012 12:09 PM Flag

    Definite buying opportunity.... Thanks GS

    The Goldman analyst is apparently unhappy with the answers to his questions about 661 during yesterday's conference call. Suddenly he's 'cautious' on the CF program because of the answers on 661 from Vertex execs. What's the apparent reasons for his caution?

    Because firstly, 661 data will be released when the study is completed rather than release interim data like the company did with 809 which unltimately resulted in confusion regarding interpretation of the data, despite the fact the drug in the final analysis has statistically significant benefit in d508 homozygotes, and is proceeding into Phase 3 trials next year, with a high probability of being able to treat more than half the CF population wordwide in 2014.. (The company would obviously now choose to release the 661 data at the end of the study to avoid repeating the same experience they had in revealing data with 809.)

    Secondly, by going ahead with the Phase 3 trials with 809, (which according to Peter Mueller is two hears ahead of 661 in development,), the GS analyst thinks that implies less confidence in the success of 661. Peter Mueller reiterated to the GS analyst the theoretical reasons for more potential clinical efficacy for 661 as a corrector over 809, but stated that the purpose of doing the 'proof of concept' Phase 2A clinical trial underway (obviously) is to prove it, and he cannot predict the results, he can only report them at the end of the study. (The GS analyst evidently wants an answer before the study is done.... not exactly a scientific approach, but. certainly another excuse to knock down the price of the stock.) This is incredible buying opportunity for long term investors who understand the value of the Vertex pipeline. I would not be surprised if a hostile takeover materializes before other clnical trial results are revealed and start driving the stock price up again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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