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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 4, 2012 12:46 PM Flag

    Gentlemen, place your bets.

    There is only one thing that really matters with this stock over the next year and it is the outcome of the phase III trial for VX-809/VX-770. This data will so overwhelm everything else going on with this company that it is almost a waste of time debating their HCV strategy, their quarterly numbers, their burn rate, the competency of their management, and the rest of their pipeline. If the study confirms the efficacy and safety seen with the 600 mg dose of VX-809 in the phase II data, then the stock is worth 2 to 3 times its current $45 share price. On the other hand, if VX-809/VX-770 fails, then the stock is worth about half its current share price. It is surprising that the Goldman analyst that doubts the phase II VX-809/VX-770 data (and rates the stock a sell) gave it a price target of $43. If he really believes this drug combination does not work, he should have given it a much lower price target. Unfortunately, we will have to wait until next summer or maybe the end of 2013 to see how things turn out with phase III. I am betting the combination therapy will be successful based on the phase II results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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