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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • luvcash2 luvcash2 Nov 8, 2012 12:22 PM Flag

    Downward Trend to Continue???



    I did not miss the one time charge of $56Mil in their earnings report.

    Please read Vertex's SEC filing again. Sales for Q2 = $373 Mil and Sales for Q3 = $303 Mil. What the company said was that the $70 Mil drop in revenue (19%) from Q2 to Q3 was going to continue, "We expect these trends to continue". So let's stop here for a second.

    Your point is the $56Mil charge plus the revenue decline of $70 Mil generated the loss for the quarter of $.27/share. OK...I get that. I think what you are missing is that if the trends continue, their revenues in (Q4) will be $246 Mil, another 19% decline from their Q3 revenues of $303 Mil. A Q4 revenue of $246 Mil means Vertex's losses will be far greater than the $.27/share loss they just posted!

    One of the other posters did point out that KALYDECO should off set the losses in sales from INCIVEK. Well...that's NOT what Vertex said this in their SEC filing. They said that current sales of KALYDECO could not make up for all the losses from INCIVEK. That's why Q3 revenue dropped!!! Vertex only said that they expect increasing sales of KALYDECO, but they made no suggestion that KALYDECO could or would make up for the failure of INCIVEK.

    The SEC filing provides faint rays of hope for KALYDECO, but the reality is, after you peer through the company's carefully worded statements, Vertex is in serious trouble. Vertex has turned into type of stock that institutions love to short and this is not the place to be if you are long the stock.

    One final thought. If the future KALYDECO is as great as some say, then this stock in the future should trade for at least twice what it is trading at today, $55/sh. So here is my final test: Are Insiders buying or selling the stock...or...are there any Insiders buying? After reading the articles that I posted earlier, I discovered that there are NO insiders buying this stock. In fact, every one of them is selling Vertex!!! Again, this is not the place to be if you are long the stock.

    So I sold.

    If I am missing something, please let me know.

    Good Luck Everyone,


    Sentiment: Sell

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