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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 8, 2012 1:54 PM Flag

    Downward Trend to Continue???

    If you cannot wait 12 to 18 months for the VX-809/VX-770 phase III data, then you should not be in this stock. Your short term trading mentality is going to cause you to lose a lot of money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • A close below $45 and this has no support and drops $3. The technicals here are very bearish. I believe in the long term view... but right now, sell.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • SWhitemd50,

      You may be right about the 12 to 18 month time horizon. VX-809/VX-770 looks promising.

      However, I really think you are missing my point. If Vertex's fundamentals (the earnings reports) continue to decline at the rate that they are declining, and the company, in their SEC filings, is confirming this probability, then the long sellers and shorts are going to destroy this stock. This stock could hit $10/share long before it hits $100/share in 18 months. I think you should remember that drug stocks are notoriously volatile and stocks getting crushed before they rise happens all the time.

      The "good" news today about Gilead's positive results on their Hepatitis C drug just adds another layer of uncertainty around Vertex's future revenue stream. This is totally unwelcome news at this point!

      My bottom line is this: Vertex's fundamentals are seriously breaking down and, at this point, I believe that the downside is very significant. I can not justify a long position at this point.

      If someone believes that I've got it completely wrong, please say so because Vertex's recent price drop then presents a good buying opportunity. BUT....I've been doing this a long time and my gut reaction to Vertex's recent news announcements and filings tell me that I'm right.

      Please comment accordingly.

      Good Luck Everyone,


      Sentiment: Sell

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