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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • thirdmeinvestor thirdmeinvestor Nov 10, 2012 1:02 PM Flag

    GS-7977 + RBV trial (ELECTRON) is a huge failure

    Do you recall that a year ago Pharmasset reported a 100% SVR rate for treatment-naive GT2 and 3 hcv patients treated with PSI-7977 and Ribavirin? Here Gilead reports updated results. As quoted below it is 60-64%, not 100%. GT1 treatment-naive patients also scored 84%,not 98% reported earlier.
    The SVR24 for all groups will be even lower than these SVR12.

    Population ------------------------------ RESULTS (SVR12)
    GT 1 treatment-naïve --------------------- 84%
    GT 1 null responders ---------------------- 10%
    GT 2/3 treatment-experienced ----------- 68%
    GT 2/3 treatment-naïve (8wks) ---------- 64%
    GT 2/3 treatment-naïve ------------------- 60%

    Their triple combo GS-7977 + GS-5885 + RBV did better for SVR4, but an SVR4 is NOT SVR24 or SVR48.

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    • Then WHY does the heading of the article say 100% sustained and most of the analyst are touting this as fact???

      • 1 Reply to rtfa50
      • RTFA50, please read the entire press reliese below:

        Their dual therapy containing Riba is completely useless for GT2 and 3 patients if the treatment time is cut to 8 wks or Riba is cut to 800 mg. The old SOC, Peg/Riba, can cure at the 80% rate. Gilead is camouflaging this weak data with their interim data for their TRIPLE combo, which had a SVR4 of 100% - one dropout. An SVR4 is not SVR24, and the triple's safety profile does not look good for an all-oral.

    • Their brilliance from a PR standpoint is they released the impressive svr4 triple combo data and imbedded the 7997/rbv svr 12 data at the bottom as if it were an afterthought.

    • GT 1 treatment naive SVR 12 --------84%
      My understanding is that GT 1a is harder to treat then GT 1 b which is harder to treat then GT2/3.
      Things are not making sense here to me if SVR 12 is only 60% for GT 2/3.

      AF and ISI guy are supporters of GILD?
      I am still waiting to see safety data on GS5885 and GS 7977 combo.

      VRTX has made a very good decision in combining GSK 508 and TMC 435 with VX 135 in my opinion. If VRTX keeps close to 1 B/ yr in Hep C revenues, we will do well. I am eager to see SVR 24 intrim data for VX 222, VX 950 and Ribavirin in GT 1 a patient. 60 patient trial entrollement finished faster than expected and 1/2 of them should have some sort of read out in next few weeks.

      BCRX flu drug Peramivir failed phase III in influenza and is a positive news for VX 787
      Xeljanz approval for 5 mg Bid dose is again a good news for VX 509.

      • 1 Reply to rojospan
      • Add the prospects of success for CF patients with VX 809 and 661 in combination with Kalydeco, to the prospects for VX 135, 509, and 787 as described by Rojospan, and it it is a mystery to me as to how the GS analyst can have any credibility in his recent negative analysis of VRTX. More importantly, if the market continues to undervalue VRTX, the probability of a takeover bid from a larger pharma seems likely.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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