I agree with you and I echo your disappointment. I would love that BigPharma purchases the company so we are done with the roller coaster of Vertex and management that doesn't have any accountability. The question is what price BigPharma would pay for Vertex. This are my calculations based on the potential value of the assets
1.- Incivek: $1.8 Billion
2.- Kalydeco: $5 Billion
3.- VX-809: $1.5 Billion
4.- Other correctors: $200 million
5.- Jak-3 inhibitor: $2 Billion
6.- Influenza: $100 million
7.- Other assets: $300 million
8.- Cash: $1.3 Billion
Total: $12.2 Billion
So, if anyone comes along with an offer in the range of $55-$60/share, I much hope they sell off the company right the way ... I will certainly vote for that as a long term shareholder!
Of course, $12.2 Billion is not pocket change, so not many companies can be suitors for Vertex, unfortunately.
gild bought out pharmasatt for 11B or so it's possible but I forgot they had drugs that work well and not just average. doubt vrtx gets bought. like you said, mgt is milking the cow for free. why pay for it. been down that road already. mgt gets options, pay, bonuses and perks. they float down the river till the river dries up and then they move to greener pastures. the little workers go on UE and suffer.
I will spare the break out, but I would add my estimate places this between 5 and 6 billion. There is no way Incivek is worth 1.8 billion... maybe 400 million. Kalydeco as it stands is with around a billion, not five. So on and so forth. I get this figure off of a DCF analysis... so the range is based on playing with assumptions.
Conveniently, this places this stock at around $25 per share, which on a technical analysis, it appears that this is where it is going.
When you have a (1) negative trend (2) Analysts saying sell (3) No near term positive catalysts (4) falling revenues (5) Increasing expenses (6) and increasingly lower and lower valuations... well there you go.
Incivek will gather sales of 800 million in 2013, 500 million in 2014 and 200 million in 2015.If you assume some trailing sales after, of 100 million for few more year and you add the other HCV compounds in the mix (that I did not account for in my valuation) I see the value of Incivek/HCV platform for $1.8 Billion very possible.
Kalydeco is selling now $250 million/yr in the USA. If you count that the extension into other gating mutations is very very likely, that will double the market in the USA. If you now add Europe, Kalydeco will be selling $750 million to $1 Billion/year sometime in 2016. They have many many years of patent life left, so $5 Billion valuation is very very reasonable.