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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • A Yahoo! User Nov 16, 2012 12:57 PM Flag

    AN OPEN L;ETTER TO MANAGEMENT

    I will spare the break out, but I would add my estimate places this between 5 and 6 billion. There is no way Incivek is worth 1.8 billion... maybe 400 million. Kalydeco as it stands is with around a billion, not five. So on and so forth. I get this figure off of a DCF analysis... so the range is based on playing with assumptions.

    Conveniently, this places this stock at around $25 per share, which on a technical analysis, it appears that this is where it is going.

    When you have a (1) negative trend (2) Analysts saying sell (3) No near term positive catalysts (4) falling revenues (5) Increasing expenses (6) and increasingly lower and lower valuations... well there you go.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Incivek will gather sales of 800 million in 2013, 500 million in 2014 and 200 million in 2015.If you assume some trailing sales after, of 100 million for few more year and you add the other HCV compounds in the mix (that I did not account for in my valuation) I see the value of Incivek/HCV platform for $1.8 Billion very possible.

      Kalydeco is selling now $250 million/yr in the USA. If you count that the extension into other gating mutations is very very likely, that will double the market in the USA. If you now add Europe, Kalydeco will be selling $750 million to $1 Billion/year sometime in 2016. They have many many years of patent life left, so $5 Billion valuation is very very reasonable.

    • yeah, just give it time. we'll see low 20's soon. mgt is lost at the wheel. short all you can

    • "When you have a (1) negative trend (2) Analysts saying sell ...."

      Let us don't make things look worse than they are to support your short position. The facts are that NASDQ lists 13 analysts have Strong Buy rating for VRTX, 2 have Buy and 3 have Hold.

 
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