The right SRPT deal might make VRTX management look like geniuses!
Don't exaggerate eteplirsen's market potential. Only 13% of DMD suffers can benefit, and there are only 2000 in this country. If you can treat ALL of 2000, it will bring to Sarepta a revenue of only 450M. The Vertex slide at the EMA website allegedly mentions eteplirsen in the context of Kalydeco profile.
My model is $440 million revenue on 1463 US patients. Next 4 exons will bring many patients, US, Europe, Japan. Think 11,000 at 60% penetration. If GSK/Prosensa continue to have toxicity issues they will come under pressure and allow Eteplirsen in EU and Japan for a royalty.
Many more possibilities in the exon skipping world to come.
yeah, I think (not to steal your thunder) that the srpt drug had some mode of action similar or to support vrtx's drug and hence the mention. I wouldn't be surprised if vrtx did nothing (buyout/rights to drug) and this all goes away. SRPT holders will be upset if they don't sell now if that occurs but time will tell.