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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • giguy_1999 giguy_1999 Dec 5, 2012 12:31 PM Flag

    market is flying (most drugs up)

    Used to be long.

    Made a ton of money on the upside

    Now its time to make money going down. This is a good company with good science.

    Problem:

    It ain't worth 8.5 billion dollars.

    That's the hard, cold reality

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    • I agree that's the hard, cold reality right now. Not so in 2 years.

      • 1 Reply to bootpart
      • If the market was confident in the CF franchise - it is not because the botched the data and are not showing any improvement in sweat chloride. All speculation at this point... and that's the difference between the $20 this is worth and the $38 it is right now.... considering that this was just recently $60 in September.... that is a real strong indicator of where this is going to continue to go.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Here is why I differ from you

      Incivek sales diminishing. Two years from now... all oral regimens.
      Flu, RA programs-- dreams at this time.

      That leaves it up to the CF program. If you think the CF program alone merits a 8.5 billion market cap, go for it. I disagree. That's what makes a market.

      Best of luck to you.

      • 1 Reply to giguy_1999
      • There are commonly accepted probabilities for success used to value pharma pipelines... those probabilities as they are make this a 5.5 billion dollar company. If you fudge with the probabilities, clearly the value goes up.

        So it is clear to me that the market has completely discounted all the negative news and has already priced in hype for the CF franchise. This is a ripe candidate then for any news to sell off.... which it has been successfully doing for the last three months.

        Run - because this has not hit bottom.

 
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