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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • giguy_1999 giguy_1999 Dec 19, 2012 11:16 AM Flag

    Crossroads

    It is you sir, that fails to see the obvious.

    This is the death knell of Incivek.

    If you think this company warrants this market cap on CF drugs alone...you are the one who can't see reality.

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    • I'm frankly concerned about your mental state and only want the best for you. When the stock was trading 38 you were posting every few minutes about it going to 25-with no rationalization. If you believe it, edify me. What probability are you assigning to the success of VX-135, VX-809, VX-661(and further correctors), VX-509 and VX-787? What revenue stream do you see from this pipeline?
      If you are shorting this stock because you feel Incivek revenues are going to zero, you're deluding yourself. Of course they're going to zero, the valuation of Vertex has nothing to do with Incivek. Immediately, from a revenue standpoint, European funding for Kalydeco is key, then expanded label for Kalydeco, 809, 661 by mid-year, 787, etc.
      My point to you is to do some analysis. Start here: take the probability of Kalydeco/809 approval and apply it to the patient population and drug cost to determine a revenue stream for the single drug, discount to present value and determine a valuation for Vrtx solely on the one combo.
      I think if you apply yourself you'll find $25 to be an understatement.

    • I'm concerned that your posts are just rash(pun intended) reactions and not the result of well thought through analysis. What discounted revenue streams are you using for valuation? What probabilities for success for vx-135, vx-809, vx-661( and other correctors), vx-509 and vx 787 are you using? What patient populations and drug price are you applying these probabilities to? While Vertex wants to squeeze as much Incivek revenue as possible over the next 2 years, it's not a strategically relevant product at this point. If you need further proof, look at the lack of response in the share price to today's news.

 
VRTX
97.74+1.43(+1.48%)Jul 22 3:59 PMEDT

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