Hard to be optimistic about the fact that the results promised by the end of 2012 haven't been announced. I assume no news = bad news. Can anyone think of a realistic scenario (preferably with a comparable example at another biotech) which could see this delay followed by good news?
Trial was closed on Dec 18 th 2012. Stock movement was extremely positive between Dec 14- 22 for some reason, even when GS down grade and Incivek skin rash labeling news came out. VRTX has dropped VX 765 not because it was not working, they just know current drugs like Keppra is hard to defeat. If VX 787 was negative, they would have dropped it long time ago. I don't know but I am expecting a good new between 2-7 th Jan, 2013 especially before JP Morgan conference. Flu is some thing that big pharma loves and they will buy out VRTX.
I agree with the thought that Vertex will release positive news next week just as the JP Morgan investor conference gets underway and will inclue a positive spin on the Phase 2A VX 787 data, and I suspect announcement of a collaboration with another Pharma (rather than a buyout) to license this drug to provide upfront cash to the company while it's revenues are fading from Incivek, and keep it's balnce sheet strong to enable development of the rest of the pipeline, while still allowing for future royalty revenue from VX 787 if it gets approval, and a significant market develops for it in the future. That along with initiation of Phase 3 VX 809 trials and Phase 2 VX 135 and additional 509 trials in other autoimmune diseases whould reignite interest in the jfuture growth of Vertex. Happy New Year!
sometimes it takes time to analyze the results but my guess is if it was great (good p value), they'd be out now and a press release on the goodyear blimp. It must be marginal or they are digging into the data to say some signal in the 2ndary measures was tickled. Overall, we won't know as who knows what's going on inside. Also, it's the holidays and they might be waiting for january. insiders know but they don't post here.
In the spirit of offering what may have been forgotten or never known, Vertex management was extremely "burned" at midyear when it released fast, "top line" results on the 809/Kalydeco trial that it thought was "material" only to have a miscommunication at the detail level force a subsequent embarassing partial retraction. I know a poster would never intentionally "forget" an important event just to bolster their viewpoint so this reminder is simply to offer my opinion that management is simply, tho perhaps reactively, playing it cautiously with 787.