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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • tenyearinvestment tenyearinvestment Feb 27, 2013 7:07 AM Flag

    VX 787 (Flu) Data Delay

    As noted before by others, information on this trial is "late", with the original expectation set at year end 2012. The question is, "What meaning can best be made of the delay?" What follows is IMO with the intent of soliciting others (Investors, not Traders) views.

    I believe the data is most likely Ambiguous, as opposed to Clear in either a Positive or Negative direction. If the outcome was Clearly Positive management would, with a short delay to eliminate potential future embarrassments, announce it to hosannas. If Clearly Negative management would, with a shorter delay, also announce to disappointed Monday Morning QB judgements. Ambiguous data takes time. Management first has to figure where It stands with respect to the outcome -- there can be a lot of internal disagreement which the CEO can either encourage or shut down before he makes a determination of "The Corporate Position" to which all are then required to adhere. This internal debate may expand to include third parties to get their read on the ambiguous data, possibly including Big Pharma potential acquirers of the molecule. Once the internal "line" is set more time will be required to decide How to communicate what may be either a simple or complex message. All we as investors can do is wait with whatever level of trust or mistrust we have in management to make the right decisions.

 
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